Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

321 
WGUS74 KCRP 101603
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1103 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXC283-101730-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120510T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA SALLE-
1103 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LA 
SALLE COUNTY...

AT 1059 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. HIGHWAY FM 468 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
COTULLA IS NOW CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. THE WATER IS 2 FEET OVER 
THIS ROAD AND RISING. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. WITH MORE RAIN 
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MILLET.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MILLET
AND WOODWARD. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...ESPIO...SALT AND CIBOLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2865 9909 2848 9925 2842 9940 2864 9940
      2865 9939

$$

MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1010 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 PM. CURRENT SVR/TOR REMAINS ISOLD OVER THE W CWA AND IS
MOVG NE AND E. BASED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE AREA IS BEING
TAKEN OVER BY A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND
OF SVR WX. A N TO S ORIENTED LINE OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDS FROM
ANNAROSE TO ALICE AND PREMONT...AND IS MOVG INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THIS LINE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BASED ON BOTH WV AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...IS LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND WITH CONVECTION JUST
E OF BIG BEND. AM EXPECTING THIS NEXT WAVE TO APPROACH THE W CWA
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE 60-80 POPS FARTHER E FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE CATEGORICAL POPS AS IS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. UPDATED PRODUCTS.

AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTION FIRING UP THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND ROUND BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION RIGHT
NOW AND EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH A
LATE START FOR VCT. WITH A SEVERE WATCH IN PLACE...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAJOR THREAT. CEILINGS
WILL VARY FROM MVFR/VFR WITH ANY APPROACHING STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS IS FIRING UP CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL AIDE IN THE EXPECTED CONVECTION FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FUEL THE SYSTEM PUMPING IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT
GOES SOUNDING IMAGERY IS SHOWING ROUGHLY 1.5 INCH PWATS OVER THE
AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ENTER
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY...A S/W DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENTERING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS...AIDING IN MORNING CONVECTION...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BIGGER FOCUS
COMES IN TO PLAY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO
TEXAS...BEFORE BEING PULLED NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...ONE
BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE SECOND BEING THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER...MULTIPLE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRESSURE HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO AIDE IN THE INCREASED SHEARING FROM 0-6KM TO
45-50KTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND SHEARING...
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAJOR THREATS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS
WHERE HIGHER HELICITY VALUES REMAIN. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A STORM WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN SPEED EASTWARDLY AS TIME PROGRESSES THIS EVENING...
WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE THE TIMING A STRONG STORM WOULD BE OVER THE
AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ABUNDANT RAINFALL. EXPECTING THE EVENTS TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST DURING THE MORNING TO LATE MORNING HOURS...EXPANDING EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH THE MAIN EVENT OCCURRING BY THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DETERMINING HOW LONG
TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
IS MAIN CONCERN. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AT 00Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE VICTORIA AREA WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA TAPERING OFF TO 20
POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BY SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 281 LINE. LATEST NAM GENERATES SOME MORE
QPF AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING CONVECTION OFF THE
COAST. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SAT/SUN. MODELS
INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE
THE EUROPEAN IS WEAKER WITH UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW...HELD ON TO THE
LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS BEFORE INCLUDING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  72  83  68  84  /  50  90  60  20  20
VICTORIA          83  69  79  64  81  /  50  90  60  40  30
LAREDO            85  72  88  69  89  /  70  70  30  20  10
ALICE             82  70  85  66  86  /  60  90  50  20  20
ROCKPORT          82  74  82  71  81  /  50  90  70  30  20
COTULLA           80  67  83  65  86  /  70  80  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        85  71  84  67  85  /  60  90  60  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  74  82  70  82  /  50  90  60  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ229>234-239>247-111130-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
621 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL
1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MAIN
THREATS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ON FRIDAY WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-111130-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
621 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
501 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ239-101045-
WEBB-
501 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 458 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAREDO COMMUNITY COLLEGE...OR 5 MILES WEST
OF LAREDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ229-101230-
LA SALLE-
630 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LA SALLE COUNTY...

AT 627 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF ARTESIA WELLS...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
909 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HAIL             14 SSE ENCINAL          27.86N 99.26W
05/10/2012  E0.75 INCH       WEBB               TX   COCORAHS

            HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES AT CALLAHAN RANCH

0520 AM     HAIL             3 WNW ORVIL             27.65N 99.54W
05/10/2012  E0.75 INCH       WEBB               TX   COCORAHS

&&

LKEYS