Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1012 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.3 INCHES...THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
CORRESPONDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FALLING DUE TO SATURATED
CONDITIONS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM MOVING BACK INTO
THIS REGION. KEPT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AREA WIDE AFTER 18Z...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK ABOVE 10KFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT TIMES...ALONG WITH BRIEF LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBYS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...YET CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. OVERALL...DESPITE THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL CONTINUE DECENT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WEAK TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
INTO DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0-2.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR THIS
MORNING...AND WITH A BIT OF HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE NORTH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE PROFILE...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY. TAPPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FOR THURSDAY...A BIT LESS LIFT IS
FORECAST WITH LESS OMEGA OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE VERY DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY GIVEN A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A BIT
MORE HEATING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WELL THEY ARE JUST AS
TRICKY AS THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARMEST
OUT WEST WITH A MORE BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THE MOST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY...YET LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED SO HAVE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...KEEPING A MENTION OF
RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
LULL IN RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR DOES TRY TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND...BETTER MOISTURE STARTS TO COME BACK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE
BACK TO SOUTH TEXAS (ECMWF SHOWING THIS THE BEST ESPECIALLY THE
MOISTURE). AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND KEEP MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND WITH
THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
PUSH UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST ON TUESDAY SO IMPACTS MAY BE A BIT LESS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE FIELDS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY FOR MORE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST (MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER
WEST ON TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF). WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING
AROUND THE AREA AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE TRICKY AS ENOUGH SUN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS COULD RAISE TEMPERATURES PRETTY FAST. FOR HIGHS...
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED
NUMBERS...GENERALLY STAYING NEAR OR ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS. LOWS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILES BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  77  91  75  90  /  70  30  50  20  30
VICTORIA          82  74  88  74  89  /  90  50  50  20  40
LAREDO            94  79  96  77  95  /  60  50  30  20  20
ALICE             90  76  93  74  91  /  80  40  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          86  80  88  78  89  /  80  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           91  77  94  74  95  /  80  50  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        91  76  94  75  92  /  70  40  40  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  89  79  89  /  70  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM/UPDATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-120015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROCKPORT TO CHARCO WHERE THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH TEXAS ALSO...WITH FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/RG/GW