Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

382 
WGUS74 KCRP 111505
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1005 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXC175-469-111600-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120711T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLIAD...VICTORIA
1005 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
VICTORIA AND EASTERN GOLIAD COUNTIES...

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM GOLIAD
NORTH TO ANDER THEN NORTHEAST TO NURSERY AND SALEM. DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 7 AM FROM SOUTHEAST
OF GOLIAD TO NORTH OF VICTORIA. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM LEADING TO FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANDER...
COLETO CREEK PARK...DOWNTOWN VICTORIA...FANNIN...GUADALUPE AND INEZ. 
SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SPRING CREEK
AND GARCITAS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CORPUS
CHRISTI.

&&

LAT...LON 2907 9694 2904 9685 2901 9682 2894 9680
      2888 9672 2885 9670 2883 9671 2841 9744
      2882 9741 2889 9732 2887 9730 2910 9698

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AREA WIDE AFTER 18Z...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK ABOVE 10KFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT TIMES...ALONG WITH BRIEF LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBYS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...YET CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. OVERALL...DESPITE THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WILL CONTINUE DECENT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WEAK TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
INTO DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0-2.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR THIS
MORNING...AND WITH A BIT OF HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE NORTH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE PROFILE...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY. TAPPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FOR THURSDAY...A BIT LESS LIFT IS
FORECAST WITH LESS OMEGA OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE VERY DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY GIVEN A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A BIT
MORE HEATING. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WELL THEY ARE JUST AS
TRICKY AS THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARMEST
OUT WEST WITH A MORE BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THE MOST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY...YET LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED SO HAVE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...KEEPING A MENTION OF
RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
LULL IN RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR DOES TRY TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND...BETTER MOISTURE STARTS TO COME BACK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE
BACK TO SOUTH TEXAS (ECMWF SHOWING THIS THE BEST ESPECIALLY THE
MOISTURE). AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND KEEP MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND WITH
THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
PUSH UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST ON TUESDAY SO IMPACTS MAY BE A BIT LESS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE FIELDS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY FOR MORE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY...WITH
LOWER CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST (MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER
WEST ON TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF). WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING
AROUND THE AREA AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE TRICKY AS ENOUGH SUN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS COULD RAISE TEMPERATURES PRETTY FAST. FOR HIGHS...
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED
NUMBERS...GENERALLY STAYING NEAR OR ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS. LOWS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILES BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  75  90  /  70  30  50  20  30
VICTORIA          85  74  88  74  89  /  80  50  50  20  40
LAREDO            94  79  96  77  95  /  50  50  30  20  20
ALICE             90  76  93  74  91  /  70  40  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          87  80  88  78  89  /  70  30  50  30  30
COTULLA           92  77  94  74  95  /  70  50  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        92  76  94  75  92  /  70  30  40  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  89  79  89  /  70  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

RG/82...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
531 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RG/GW