Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP
THREAT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE CONVECTION BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ALONG THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.3 INCHES...THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
ALONG WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
CORRESPONDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FALLING DUE TO SATURATED
CONDITIONS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM MOVING BACK INTO
THIS REGION. KEPT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AREAS ESPECIALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  77  91  75  90  /  70  30  50  20  30
VICTORIA          82  74  88  74  89  /  90  50  50  20  40
LAREDO            94  79  96  77  95  /  60  50  30  20  20
ALICE             90  76  93  74  91  /  80  40  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          86  80  88  78  89  /  80  40  50  30  30
COTULLA           91  77  94  74  95  /  80  50  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        91  76  94  75  92  /  70  40  40  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  89  79  89  /  70  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-120015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1029 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROCKPORT TO CHARCO WHERE THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH TEXAS ALSO...WITH FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/RG/GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW PORT LAVACA        28.55N 96.69W
07/11/2012                   CALHOUN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING OVER A WOODEN BRIDGE ALONG MATSON
            ADDITION...NEAR CHOCOLATE BAYOU.

&&

LKEYS