Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CLUSTER OS SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS JEFFERSON/SHELBY COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE
STORMS ARE DROPPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ADDITIONAL SINGLE AND
MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
WESTERN TN AND A MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD INTO W AL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE.

BY MIDDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA...WITH MORE STABLE AIR OVER OUR CWA IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WOULD BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT HERE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED THRU THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLIM. TEMPS TODAY WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH
HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISO ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STILL
IN PLACE MODELS TRY TO BRING AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES PRECLUDE INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION DOWN AROUND TROY WAS PERSISTENT...
BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY SETTLED DOWN. OUR ATTENTION IS
NOW TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...WHERE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
SLOWLY RAMPED UP THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRONGEST CELL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER (AT 05Z) WAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF MSL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THAT PUTS IT ON COURSE TO HEAD RIGHT FOR BHM. THUS...THE
06Z TAFS WILL BE BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THAT STRONGEST CELL WILL
CONTINUE ITS CURRENT MOTION...AND ADDITIONAL (LESS STRONG) CELLS
WILL DEVELOP ON EITHER FLANK. SO...I'VE HIT THE STORMY CONDITIONS
HARDEST AT BHM AND EET...LESS SO AT TCL AND ANB. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CELL...AND/OR STRENGTHENING ON THE
FLANKS...WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...I
THINK THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. THUS...I'VE KEPT CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS-ONLY VFR AFTER
ENDING THE RAIN.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  71  95  71  93 /  50  20  20  20  30
ANNISTON    92  73  95  72  93 /  60  20  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  96  75  94 /  50  20  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  93  74  98  73  96 /  50  20  20  20  40
CALERA      92  73  96  74  94 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUBURN      88  73  95  74  93 /  70  30  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  91  74  97  75  95 /  70  30  20  20  40
TROY        89  73  95  74  93 /  70  40  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
513 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-312200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
513 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH 12 NOON. THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TODAY.

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