Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CLUSTER OS SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS JEFFERSON/SHELBY COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE
STORMS ARE DROPPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ADDITIONAL SINGLE AND
MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
WESTERN TN AND A MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD INTO W AL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE.

BY MIDDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA...WITH MORE STABLE AIR OVER OUR CWA IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WOULD BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT HERE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
TIMING OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED THRU THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLIM. TEMPS TODAY WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH
HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISO ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT STILL
IN PLACE MODELS TRY TO BRING AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES PRECLUDE INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY PARTICULAR
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION DOWN AROUND TROY WAS PERSISTENT...
BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY SETTLED DOWN. OUR ATTENTION IS
NOW TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...WHERE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
SLOWLY RAMPED UP THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRONGEST CELL IN THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER (AT 05Z) WAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF MSL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THAT PUTS IT ON COURSE TO HEAD RIGHT FOR BHM. THUS...THE
06Z TAFS WILL BE BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THAT STRONGEST CELL WILL
CONTINUE ITS CURRENT MOTION...AND ADDITIONAL (LESS STRONG) CELLS
WILL DEVELOP ON EITHER FLANK. SO...I'VE HIT THE STORMY CONDITIONS
HARDEST AT BHM AND EET...LESS SO AT TCL AND ANB. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CELL...AND/OR STRENGTHENING ON THE
FLANKS...WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...I
THINK THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. THUS...I'VE KEPT CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS-ONLY VFR AFTER
ENDING THE RAIN.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  71  95  71  93 /  50  20  20  20  30
ANNISTON    92  73  95  72  93 /  60  20  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  96  75  94 /  50  20  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  93  74  98  73  96 /  50  20  20  20  40
CALERA      92  73  96  74  94 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUBURN      88  73  95  74  93 /  70  30  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  91  74  97  75  95 /  70  30  20  20  40
TROY        89  73  95  74  93 /  70  40  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-311500-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
239 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY BRING
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ALZ014-015-310600-
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINSTON AND NORTHERN WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1214 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINSTON FREE STATE BARN TO
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF JASPER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  JASPER...
  ARLEY...
  CORDOVA...
  DORA...
  SUMITON...

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8756 3413 8710 3399 8710 3399 8713
      3397 8713 3396 8710 3392 8708 3390 8708
      3389 8705 3377 8702 3371 8704 3384 8746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 292DEG 16KT 3415 8743 3390 8738

GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

ALZ026-310615-
ST. CLAIR AL-
1227 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1225 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOODY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PELL CITY...
  BALD ROCK...
  COOSA ISLAND...
  CAMP WINNATASAKA...
  CHULA VISTA...

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8618 3352 8623 3350 8623 3349 8626
      3352 8627 3344 8632 3348 8638 3350 8638
      3350 8642 3355 8648 3357 8653 3371 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 306DEG 16KT 3358 8646

GRANTHAM

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