Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 MANY PLACES WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. TO THE EAST WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MANY PLACES. SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIED
OFF BUT WITH THE MANY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN
PLACE...SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER/MCS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
SLIGHTLY DISAGREED UPON BY THE MODELS...THE OVERALL CONCEPT IS THE
SAME...AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT TO NEAR DAY BREAK AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THE SEVERITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY
HIGH AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. IT MAY ALSO BE WHAT THREAT THERE
IS ENDS UP LIMITED TO AFTER DAY BREAK...ONCE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THEN THE
GREATER AFFECTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL
JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING.

BEYOND TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES SEEM TO VACATE THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY ON THAT DAY WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK IMPULSE ON THURSDAY BRINGS CHANCE POPS BACK
AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONCE AGAIN...THE ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ARE DOWN
AROUND TROY. THOSE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A CLUSTER OF RAIN AND STORMS
WILL FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
TONIGHT. I'VE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED A PREDOMINANT TSRA GROUP...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE STORMS
COMING THIS WAY HAS INCREASED...THE TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL INTO ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. I'VE GIVEN IT MY BEST
SHOT...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND RADAR TRENDS. I DO THINK
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK-HITTING...LASTING 2 OR 3 HOURS AT THE MOST.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-312000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
345 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE OUT OF TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY THE NORTH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY MORNING...
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

08/MK