Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN H85 LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND AN H85 HIGH WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. THE EXTRA LIFT/ENERGY FROM A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE AS WELL AS IN
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
TRAINING STORMS YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING BUT SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING CAN BE SEEN IN SE VA/NE NC
AND JUST WEST OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA. CLEARING IS MORE NOTICEABLE TO
THE WEST AND HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NW/NRN
PORTIONS OF FA FOR TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRNT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVR SRN AREAS TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...THEN DISSIPATES OFF THE CST WED NGT. HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL CONTINUE OVR SE VA AND NE NC TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN
DECREASE TO LOW-END CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS (20%-30%) IN THESE AREAS
LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NGT...AS THE ENERGY/LIFT AND FRNTL BNDRY
SHIFTS OFF THE CST. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP OVR THE REGION
ON THU...AND COMBINED WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD TRIGGER ISLTD
OR SCTD AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...AND IN THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHC FOR RAIN AS AN UPR-LVL
TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI...WITH DEEP MOISTURE...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF...AND RFQ OF AN UPR-LVL JET LEADING TO A GOOD CHC
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FRI INTO FRI NGT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DUE TO STRONG FORCING...SHEAR...AND DEVELOPING LLJ. FROPA MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL SAT SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH
POPS DECREASING SAT NGT AND SUN. HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND THE FRNT
ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS CAPPED AT 20%. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE M80S-L90S. LOWS IN THE M60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS SE VA AFFECTING THE AREA
AROUND ORF/PHF. SOME BRIEF IFR WILL BE PSBL THROUGH LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THESE
IS MOST LIKELY AT ORF/ECG WHERE SHRA WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF. WILL
ADD TSTM WHEN TIMING BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS HELD DOWN MAINLY BY CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE
SAME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED MVFR BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT ORF/RIC.

OUTLOOK...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACRS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ON WED. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRNT SO WINDS WILL AVG CLOSE TO 10 KT...PEAKING UP TO AROUND
15 KT AT TIMES. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. S/SW WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THU THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT (STRONGER) COLD FRONT
WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WNW SUN-MON BUT IN ANY EVENT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND EVENTUALLY
NE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1107 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ022>024-071530-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
1107 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET...SOUTH
CENTRAL WICOMICO AND WEST CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 1103 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COKESBURY...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET COUNTY AND WEST CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3816 7573 3829 7559 3810 7549 3805 7560

DEROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1126 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ021>024-071600-
DORCHESTER MD-INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
1126 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DORCHESTER...NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET...WESTERN WICOMICO AND WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER...
SOMERSET...WICOMICO AND WORCESTER COUNTIES AT 1125 AM EDT. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LAT...LON 3842 7574 3828 7551 3809 7556 3819 7570
      3822 7586 3824 7587 3823 7588 3823 7591
      3841 7601 3852 7603 3856 7586

DEROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1158 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ021-022-071645-
DORCHESTER MD-WICOMICO MD-
1158 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DORCHESTER AND
NORTHWESTERN WICOMICO COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR VIENNA...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BUCKTOWN AROUND 1210 PM AND LINKWOOD
AROUND 1250 PM.

LAT...LON 3862 7590 3846 7578 3840 7581 3845 7615
      3860 7616 3861 7614 3859 7612 3859 7608
      3858 7607 3859 7606 3858 7603 3860 7599
      3862 7598

DEROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ022>024-071645-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET...SOUTH
CENTRAL WICOMICO AND WEST CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COKESBURY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WHITESBURG.

LAT...LON 3817 7575 3830 7561 3815 7545 3807 7557

DEROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ021-071700-
DORCHESTER MD-
1227 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 1226 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MADISON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WOOLFORD...CHURCH CREEK AND CAMBRIDGE.

LAT...LON 3860 7616 3859 7610 3851 7597 3843 7603
      3841 7614 3849 7635 3851 7634 3850 7628
      3854 7622 3853 7628 3857 7632 3859 7628
      3863 7628 3864 7625 3862 7621 3864 7617

DEROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ021-071745-
DORCHESTER MD-
1256 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 1252 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHURCH CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HUDSON...CAMBRIDGE AND LINKWOOD.

LAT...LON 3860 7616 3861 7614 3858 7607 3860 7599
      3856 7590 3844 7598 3837 7608 3848 7635
      3851 7634 3850 7628 3854 7622 3853 7624
      3853 7628 3857 7629 3857 7632 3859 7628
      3864 7629 3862 7622 3864 7617

DEROSA