Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN H85 LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND AN H85 HIGH WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. THE EXTRA LIFT/ENERGY FROM A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE AS WELL AS IN
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
TRAINING STORMS YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING BUT SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING CAN BE SEEN IN SE VA/NE NC
AND JUST WEST OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA. CLEARING IS MORE NOTICEABLE TO
THE WEST AND HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NW/NRN
PORTIONS OF FA FOR TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRNT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVR SRN AREAS TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...THEN DISSIPATES OFF THE CST WED NGT. HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL CONTINUE OVR SE VA AND NE NC TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN
DECREASE TO LOW-END CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS (20%-30%) IN THESE AREAS
LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NGT...AS THE ENERGY/LIFT AND FRNTL BNDRY
SHIFTS OFF THE CST. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP OVR THE REGION
ON THU...AND COMBINED WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD TRIGGER ISLTD
OR SCTD AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...AND IN THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHC FOR RAIN AS AN UPR-LVL
TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI...WITH DEEP MOISTURE...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF...AND RFQ OF AN UPR-LVL JET LEADING TO A GOOD CHC
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FRI INTO FRI NGT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DUE TO STRONG FORCING...SHEAR...AND DEVELOPING LLJ. FROPA MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL SAT SO WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH
POPS DECREASING SAT NGT AND SUN. HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND THE FRNT
ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS CAPPED AT 20%. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE M80S-L90S. LOWS IN THE M60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS SE VA AFFECTING THE AREA
AROUND ORF/PHF. SOME BRIEF IFR WILL BE PSBL THROUGH LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THESE
IS MOST LIKELY AT ORF/ECG WHERE SHRA WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF. WILL
ADD TSTM WHEN TIMING BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS HELD DOWN MAINLY BY CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE
SAME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED MVFR BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT ORF/RIC.

OUTLOOK...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACRS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ON WED. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRNT SO WINDS WILL AVG CLOSE TO 10 KT...PEAKING UP TO AROUND
15 KT AT TIMES. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. S/SW WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THU THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT (STRONGER) COLD FRONT
WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WNW SUN-MON BUT IN ANY EVENT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND EVENTUALLY
NE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

MDZ021>024-VAZ099-071500-
ACCOMACK VA-DORCHESTER MD-INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO
1026 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SOMERSET...NORTHERN
ACCOMACK...SOUTHERN DORCHESTER...SOUTHWESTERN WICOMICO AND
SOUTHWESTERN WORCESTER COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF ACCOMACK...
DORCHESTER...SOMERSET...WICOMICO AND WORCESTER COUNTIES AT 1023 AM
EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3792 7557 3819 7585 3820 7590 3822 7585
      3824 7587 3822 7588 3826 7594 3821 7596
      3832 7603 3828 7602 3821 7603 3825 7611
      3823 7616 3828 7621 3830 7615 3844 7604
      3840 7562 3809 7531

DEROSA

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