Storm Warning 54, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 21, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 21, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

948 
FZAK52 PAJK 211246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEST OF THE
DIXON ENTRANCE WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN CANADA. A POWERFUL STORM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT DIMINISHING
TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO
23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 20, 3:11 PM AKST, 12 hours 49 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. RESULT IS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND PUBLIC ZONE 25 FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS
AREA. ALSO HAVE NORTHERLY STORM WARNING IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. GALES FOR SOUTHERN LYNN, GLACIER BAY, CROSS SOUND, AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. ALSO HAVE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR LYNN CANAL, GLACIER BAY, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
WINDS IN YAKUTAT BAY MAXING OUT AT 20 KT, BUT GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. VERY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS FOR THOSE
INNER CHANNELS CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, DO NOT HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE TAFS, BUT LOWER LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY FULL OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE PIREPS TODAY. JAWS WIND
SENSORS VICINITY JUNEAU AIRPORT CONSISTENTLY REPORTING MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE DAY FOR APPROACHES UP GASTINEAU
CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. BLENDED ECMWF, GFS AND
GEM FOR POP AND QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS USING NAM AND GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...HUGE CONCERN HERE FOR THE STRENGTH OF A HURRICANE
FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OFF LANGARA ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING. ALL 20/12Z OPS MODELS KEEP THE LOW CENTER TRACK WEST OF
140W THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH THE DEEPEST AS ECMWF 959 MB. INDICATING
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN PKZ041 AND 042 AND PKZ036 FOR TYPICAL
LINCOLN ROCK HOWLING. NOT ISSUING WATCH BUT WILL GIVE HEADS-UP
CALLS TO FORECASTED AREAS. TWO MITIGATING FACTORS THAT MIGHT KEEP
WIND BELOW 60 MPH: 1) STRONG WARM ADVECTION 2) LOW TRACK W OF
140W. ON THE STRONGER SIDE...850 MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 KT JUST
OFF LANGARA AND 65 KT NEAR PAKT @18Z THU. USED 12Z
AK-GFS-40 THROUGH FRI AND TODAYS HPC GUIDANCE SAT THROUGH TUE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON FORECASTED WIND SPEED AND HIGH ON TRACK OF
LOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-034-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

FRITSCH/JC

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every storm warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.