Gale Warning 401, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 21, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 21, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

071 
FZAK51 PAJK 211636 CCA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-220100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEST OF THE
DIXON ENTRANCE WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN CANADA. A POWERFUL STORM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.   

$$

PKZ011-220100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW GALE TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-220100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE
WIND TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-220100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-220100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-220100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
WITH RAIN. 
.FRI...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-220100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-220100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-220100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-220100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-220100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-220100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE STORM TO 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 20, 3:11 PM AKST, 12 hours 49 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. RESULT IS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND PUBLIC ZONE 25 FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS
AREA. ALSO HAVE NORTHERLY STORM WARNING IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. GALES FOR SOUTHERN LYNN, GLACIER BAY, CROSS SOUND, AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. ALSO HAVE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR LYNN CANAL, GLACIER BAY, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
WINDS IN YAKUTAT BAY MAXING OUT AT 20 KT, BUT GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. VERY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS FOR THOSE
INNER CHANNELS CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, DO NOT HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE TAFS, BUT LOWER LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY FULL OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE PIREPS TODAY. JAWS WIND
SENSORS VICINITY JUNEAU AIRPORT CONSISTENTLY REPORTING MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE DAY FOR APPROACHES UP GASTINEAU
CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. BLENDED ECMWF, GFS AND
GEM FOR POP AND QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS USING NAM AND GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...HUGE CONCERN HERE FOR THE STRENGTH OF A HURRICANE
FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OFF LANGARA ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING. ALL 20/12Z OPS MODELS KEEP THE LOW CENTER TRACK WEST OF
140W THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH THE DEEPEST AS ECMWF 959 MB. INDICATING
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN PKZ041 AND 042 AND PKZ036 FOR TYPICAL
LINCOLN ROCK HOWLING. NOT ISSUING WATCH BUT WILL GIVE HEADS-UP
CALLS TO FORECASTED AREAS. TWO MITIGATING FACTORS THAT MIGHT KEEP
WIND BELOW 60 MPH: 1) STRONG WARM ADVECTION 2) LOW TRACK W OF
140W. ON THE STRONGER SIDE...850 MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 KT JUST
OFF LANGARA AND 65 KT NEAR PAKT @18Z THU. USED 12Z
AK-GFS-40 THROUGH FRI AND TODAYS HPC GUIDANCE SAT THROUGH TUE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON FORECASTED WIND SPEED AND HIGH ON TRACK OF
LOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-034-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

FRITSCH/JC

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.