High Wind Watch 7, NWS Juneau, AK

199 
WWAK77 PAJK 220052
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY...

.A VERY POWERFUL STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA ON THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AKZ026-028-220900-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0007.121122T1200Z-121123T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0017.121122T1800Z-121123T0300Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
352 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
  AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
  BOTH SIDES OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND KUIU ISLAND.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER
  LINES AND STRUCTURES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF
  POWER.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT. 

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-027-220900-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0007.121122T1200Z-121123T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0017.121122T1800Z-121123T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
352 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
  AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
  BOTH SIDES OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND SOUTHERN BARANOF.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER
  LINES AND STRUCTURES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF
  POWERS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT. 

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.


&&

$$

AKZ025-220900-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0007.121122T1500Z-121123T0400Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0017.121122T1800Z-121123T0000Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
352 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TIMING...TAKU WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING IN
  THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS...GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR GREATER IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
  DOUGLAS.


* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER
  LINES AND STRUCTURES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF
  POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOUR VESSELS ARE PROPERLY MOORED IN DOUGLAS AND
HARRIS HARBORS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. RESULT IS THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND PUBLIC ZONE 25 FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS
AREA. ALSO HAVE NORTHERLY STORM WARNING IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. GALES FOR SOUTHERN LYNN, GLACIER BAY, CROSS SOUND, AND
STEPHENS PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. ALSO HAVE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR LYNN CANAL, GLACIER BAY, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE.
WINDS IN YAKUTAT BAY MAXING OUT AT 20 KT, BUT GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. VERY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS FOR THOSE
INNER CHANNELS CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, DO NOT HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE TAFS, BUT LOWER LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY FULL OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE PIREPS TODAY. JAWS WIND
SENSORS VICINITY JUNEAU AIRPORT CONSISTENTLY REPORTING MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE DAY FOR APPROACHES UP GASTINEAU
CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

USED NAM FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND. BLENDED ECMWF, GFS AND
GEM FOR POP AND QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS USING NAM AND GFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...HUGE CONCERN HERE FOR THE STRENGTH OF A HURRICANE
FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OFF LANGARA ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING. ALL 20/12Z OPS MODELS KEEP THE LOW CENTER TRACK WEST OF
140W THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH THE DEEPEST AS ECMWF 959 MB. INDICATING
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS IN PKZ041 AND 042 AND PKZ036 FOR TYPICAL
LINCOLN ROCK HOWLING. NOT ISSUING WATCH BUT WILL GIVE HEADS-UP
CALLS TO FORECASTED AREAS. TWO MITIGATING FACTORS THAT MIGHT KEEP
WIND BELOW 60 MPH: 1) STRONG WARM ADVECTION 2) LOW TRACK W OF
140W. ON THE STRONGER SIDE...850 MB WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 KT JUST
OFF LANGARA AND 65 KT NEAR PAKT @18Z THU. USED 12Z
AK-GFS-40 THROUGH FRI AND TODAYS HPC GUIDANCE SAT THROUGH TUE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE ON FORECASTED WIND SPEED AND HIGH ON TRACK OF
LOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-034-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

FRITSCH/JC