Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Juneau, AK

547 
FZAK52 PAJK 041956 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050200-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO SE YUKON SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-050200-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-050200-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-050200-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-050200-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-050200-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1056 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

768 
FZAK52 PAJK 050028
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051400-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
THROUGH SUN AND WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THEN LIFT OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUN EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. 

$$

PKZ041-051400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS
LATE.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF
FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. S SWELL.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A FRONTAL BAND LIFTING OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
THE FRONTAL BAND ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE PAYA AREA BUT THE UPPER TROF WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WITH INCREASE
OFFSHORE FLOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED MIX PRECIP THIS MORNING. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS INTO CANADA AND THE MID AND UPPER
RIDGE LIFTS OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE
SOUTHERN ARES ARE SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND FOR
THE MOST PART BE A VERY NICE DAY.

 FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SE
AK THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY
ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUDS THAT INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE NIGHT
AS A LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 20S LOWER 30S WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. THE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM EXPOSED AREAS AND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF
THE FOG BEING ON THE DENSE SIDE WITH VERY STABLE CONDITIONS FROM
SIGNIFICANT WAA FROM THE SOUTH AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

 WIND WISE...FOR THE MOST PART THE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BUT THEY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH OVER BC STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME STILL WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT BUT THEY DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IN BC THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT TO BE OVER SE YUKON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS LYNN CANAL TO GALES BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SMALL
CRAFTS OVER SOUTHERN LYNN AND GLACIER BAY. THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE GENERALLY N WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 KT BUT GUSTS
FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT TO GUST 50KT.
IN AREAS AWAY FROM INTERIOR PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS FOG WILL DEVELOP AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 1 MILES IN PLACES.

 USED MAINLY THE NAM WITH SOME EC EARLY ON FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 24HRS.

 THERE IS STILL SOME BIG SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF BUT THEY WILL
SUBSIDE TO BE AROUND 11 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING A FRONT TO NEAR DIXON
ENTRANCE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CANADIAN CONTINENT. THE GFS AND NAM MAKE A
GOOD CONSENSUS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A BIT DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW TRACK. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE
GFS AND NAM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 AS THE PRESSURE FIELD LOWERS OVER THE GULF...THE PERSISTING HIGH
IN THE CANADIAN CONTINENT WILL INCREASE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH STRONG DOWN SLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MINI TAKU EVENT CAN BE
EXPECTED...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OUTER
WATERS WITH STRONGER GUSTY WINDS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SKAGWAY AREA WILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME A TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

 MODELS ARE DEPICTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
ON MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...BUT
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW TRACK ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE GFS KEEPS THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG
50N THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY KICKS IT TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. YET ANOTHER LOW DEPICTED BY THE GFS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. MODELS
DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND LARGER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE HPC APPROACH FOR THE LONGER
RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-035-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

ABJ/AHN