Gale Warning 98, NWS Juneau, AK

281 
FZAK67 PAJK 041246
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SE AK WILL DRIFT NORTH
INTO SE YUKON SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUN MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012 

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL SHIFTING TO THE S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
603 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...A 968 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 56N/142W WILL
CONTINUE NORTH THIS MORNING AND CURVE NW TO PWS THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE WEAKENING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL
PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED ONSHORE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THIS MORNING AND INTO CANADA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL
OF PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

 BIORKA RADAR SHOWING VERY STRONG SSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KT
BELOW 2500 FEET JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS HAS PRODUCED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST OF 86 MPH AT SITKA
THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF WIND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
INNER CHANNELS AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WIND DIMINISH THROUGH AFTERNOON.
HAVE HWW IN PLACE FOR MOST ZONES. STORM EXPECTED FOR INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING THAT DIMINISH THROUGH GALE THIS AFTERNOON
AND GO LESS THAN SMCR OUT OF THE ESE WITH BUILDING RIDGE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SECOND WRAP OF THE OCCLUSION NOW IN SRN QUAD OF LOW
THAT WILL TURN NE INTO EASTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN NE GULF FOR CONTINUING STORMS. SEAS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO 25-30 KT RANGE TODAY WITH A PK SEA OF 37 FT NOTED ON
46205 OVERNIGHT.

 EXPECTING A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING. SINCE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY FAST
TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXCESSIVE. PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH SO SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND HAVE EASED AND HAVE ALOUD THE
WSW TO EXPIRE. SHOULD SEE SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MODERATE CAA IN SW FLOW BEGIN TO LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING AND GOING TO SEA LEVEL LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES FOR INNER
CHANNELS AND 2-4 FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

 HAD VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND NEEDED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES A SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING NORTH OVER THE AREA SUN/MON.
THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK BUT ATTM THERE IS TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. SO WITH
THAT SAID DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME AS TO
WAIT FOR THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. IN
THE MID-RANGE USED A BLEND OF THE EC/NAM AS THEY HANDLE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETTER ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
IN CANADA AND A LOW OVER THE GULF.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER BC FROM THE SOUTH WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER TROF LIFTS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER TROF WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AS THE TROF DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO CANADA THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SAT
MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE
HIGH OVER BC LINKS UP WITH AN HIGH BUILDING OVER THE YUKON. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH GALES
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN INNER MARINE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS MORE INTO
BC THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. DID LOWER THE NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL MARINE WATERS AS SINCE THERE IS NOT CAA
THERE WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH THERMAL FORCING OF WINDS. THERE WILL
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS OVER LAND BUT IT WILL REMAIN TO BE LOCALIZED
NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BY SUNDAY IF THE WINDS ARE LOCALIZED ENOUGH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERE COULD A
SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN FROM THE SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF RANGING FROM +2-+8. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MOIST LOWER
LEVELS DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP. LATE SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS AS IT WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO AIR TRAVEL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023-024-
     026>028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019-021-022-025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM AKST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
         STRONG WIND FROM 2 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-032-034-035-053.

&&

MM/ABJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1200 PM AKST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
02/03/2012  M86.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0530 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NW JUNEAU             58.39N 134.59W
02/03/2012  M63.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT PEDERSON HILL.

0542 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE JUNEAU             58.28N 134.37W
02/03/2012  M60.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND PROFILER.

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/03/2012  M93.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT MT. ROBERTS TRAM UPPER TERMINAL.

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/03/2012  M78.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU.

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAGLECREST              58.27N 134.51W
02/03/2012  M134 MPH                            AK   MESONET

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012  M81.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SKAGWAY                 59.48N 135.33W
02/03/2012  M70.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0807 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            VHF TOWER ANTENNA BROKE OFF

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/03/2012  M61.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012  E100 MPH                            AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A RESIDENT LOST HIS PORCH, AND ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF
            100 MPH.

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER OUTAGE IN SOME NEIGHBORHOODS.

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT LEAST ONE ROOF DOWN.

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALASKA AIRLINE LUGGAGE CARTS WERE BLOWN OVER.

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/03/2012                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSEK AIR HANGAR HAS ONE WINDOW DAMAGED FROM THE HIGH
            WIND.

&&

RCL