Small Craft Advisory 95, NWS Juneau, AK

031 
FZAK51 PAJK 041455 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO SE YUKON SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF
FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1
NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM
OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE
EVENING. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 50 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS
DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AWAY FROM INTERIOR PASSES. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1
NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY
1 NM OR LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS DEVELOPING IN
THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1
NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR
LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AWAY FROM INTERIOR PASSES. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT......E WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR
LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AWAY FROM INTERIOR PASSES. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM
OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
555 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1
NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AWAY FROM
INTERIOR PASSES. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT'S STORM HAS TRACKED
NORTH AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE. WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 17, 18, AND 19 EXPIRING AS OF 2 PM. STRONG
WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OUTER COAST AND NORTHERN
ZONES LESS GUSTAVUS AND HOONAH FOR THIS EVENING. GALES OVER THE
COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS YAKUTAT BAY AND NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THIS STORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE CATEGORICAL TONIGHT NORTH OF ICY STRAIT AND SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST MOUNTAINS EAST OF STEPHENS PASSAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAR
ENOUGH THAT MOST LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SEE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION. HAVE ONLY UP TO 3 INCHES FOR HAINES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW TO DRY
THINGS OUT FOR A SHORT WHILE, BRING IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, AND
GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE WIND. NO MAJOR WARMING TREND TOMORROW,
BUT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE MOVING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM FOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAYS HAS A STRONG WARM MOIST CONNECTION TO
THE TROPICS. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE YUKON AND BC CANADA...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES AND INSIDE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE MID LEVELS WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH DRYER AIR...AS
A RESULT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SKIES CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS IN ADDITION TO THE
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN WARMER
AIR RANGING FROM ABOUT 800 TO 3000FT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE THE VALLEYS WILL SEE A COOLING TREND AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE WET GROUND ANY CLOUDS/FOG THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT SETS UP
UNTIL IT BREAKS AS THE LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY.

WINDS ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40MPH. RAIN WILL REACH
LAND ABOUT THE SAME TIME ALONG A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY AND AND MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE YAKUTAT AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. BUT LOOKS
TO TAKE A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL THIS WILL
KEEP A WARM SELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IDEA OF LOWS IN THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER BC. UPDATES WERE MADE WITH MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-023-025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017>019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-043-051-053.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041.

&&

FRITSCH/HANNON