Small Craft Advisory 698, NWS Juneau, AK

469 
FZAK52 PAJK 202041 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE N TO JUST W OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THERE TUE NIGHT AND WED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON THROUGH WED. OUTLOOK...A
POWERFUL STORM WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 33 FT. 
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT LATE. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 32 FT. 
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO  19 FT. 
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1141 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO
5 FT LATE. SE SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.WED...NE WIND BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND BIORKA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX
LOW ROTATING OFFSHORE MOVING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
HAS BROUGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
PANHANDLE...SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS SOME PERSISTENT WINDS TO 30 MPH IN SPOTS
OVER THE COAST AND THE SOUTH. YUKON HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FIRMLY
IN PLACE WITH SOME COLD TEMPERATURES...LIKE 3 DEGREES IN WATSON
LAKE AND 1 DEGREE IN WHITEHORSE. PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WILL STILL YIELD STORM FORCE WINDS IN
LYNN CANAL INTO TUESDAY. STRONG GALE WILL CONTINUE FOR CROSS
SOUND...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS...AS WELL SEVERAL
ZONES IN THE NORTHERN INSIDE. IN ADDITION...FREEZING SPRAY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.

 AS COMPLEX LOW MOVES TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...ANOTHER LOW ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
OVER THE PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
THE EXITING LOW TONIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER FLOW FROM THE
INTERIOR THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDY SKIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE. POPS WILL
RETREAT FROM ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COAST ZONES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

 USED THE ECMWF TO REFRESH GRIDS. MODELS STILL NOT RESOLVING
SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA....BUT ECMWF SEEMS TO SIMPLIFY THINGS IN AN
ACCEPTABLE WAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO INNER CHANNEL WINDS. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO GIVE SOME NECESSARY HIGH AND LOW DIFFERENCES, ALTHOUGH MINIMAL
TO WINDY AREAS OF LYNN CANAL. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODEL
OUTPUTS...BUT THE OVERALL GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS HIGHLY
ACCEPTABLE PERFORMANCE. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT ECMWF THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. POTENTIAL
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOW MORE PRONOUNCED FROM THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN POSTED. AT
THIS TIME...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH PERSISTING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE YUKON...NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER. MODELS BEGIN DIVERTING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OPTED TO LEAN OVER THE NEW HPC ENSEMBLE
APPROACH WITH THEIR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTIES...THE STORM MAY TRACK A LITTLE MORE
TO THE WEST. IF THAT HAPPENS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY NOT REACH AS
FAR TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THE SAME
TOKEN...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM MOVEMENT MAY SHIFT
MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORM AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED AS IT MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. WITH PERSISTING ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH...POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY AND/OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH DEPICTS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TRACK BACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019-025.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-035-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-034-036-041-042-052.

&&

JWA/AHN