Gale Warning 397, NWS Juneau, AK

003 
FZAK51 PAJK 202036 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-210100-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE N TO JUST W OF HAIDA GWAII BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THERE TUE NIGHT AND WED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON THROUGH WED. OUTLOOK...A
POWERFUL STORM WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ011-210100-
GLACIER BAY-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-210100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-210100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-210100-
ICY STRAIT-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-210100-
CROSS SOUND-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-210100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-210100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-210100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-210100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-210100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-210100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED
WITH SNOW LATE.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST MON NOV 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND BIORKA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX
LOW ROTATING OFFSHORE MOVING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
HAS BROUGHT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
PANHANDLE...SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS SOME PERSISTENT WINDS TO 30 MPH IN SPOTS
OVER THE COAST AND THE SOUTH. YUKON HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FIRMLY
IN PLACE WITH SOME COLD TEMPERATURES...LIKE 3 DEGREES IN WATSON
LAKE AND 1 DEGREE IN WHITEHORSE. PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH
RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WILL STILL YIELD STORM FORCE WINDS IN
LYNN CANAL INTO TUESDAY. STRONG GALE WILL CONTINUE FOR CROSS
SOUND...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS...AS WELL SEVERAL
ZONES IN THE NORTHERN INSIDE. IN ADDITION...FREEZING SPRAY WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY.

 AS COMPLEX LOW MOVES TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...ANOTHER LOW ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN
OVER THE PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
THE EXITING LOW TONIGHT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER FLOW FROM THE
INTERIOR THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDY SKIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE. POPS WILL
RETREAT FROM ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COAST ZONES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

 USED THE ECMWF TO REFRESH GRIDS. MODELS STILL NOT RESOLVING
SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA....BUT ECMWF SEEMS TO SIMPLIFY THINGS IN AN
ACCEPTABLE WAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO INNER CHANNEL WINDS. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO GIVE SOME NECESSARY HIGH AND LOW DIFFERENCES, ALTHOUGH MINIMAL
TO WINDY AREAS OF LYNN CANAL. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODEL
OUTPUTS...BUT THE OVERALL GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS HIGHLY
ACCEPTABLE PERFORMANCE. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT ECMWF THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. POTENTIAL
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOW MORE PRONOUNCED FROM THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN POSTED. AT
THIS TIME...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH PERSISTING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE YUKON...NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER. MODELS BEGIN DIVERTING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OPTED TO LEAN OVER THE NEW HPC ENSEMBLE
APPROACH WITH THEIR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTIES...THE STORM MAY TRACK A LITTLE MORE
TO THE WEST. IF THAT HAPPENS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY NOT REACH AS
FAR TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THE SAME
TOKEN...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM MOVEMENT MAY SHIFT
MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORM AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED AS IT MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. WITH PERSISTING ARCTIC AIR TO THE
NORTH...POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY AND/OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH DEPICTS THE STORM
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TRACK BACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019-025.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-032-035-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-034-036-041-042-052.

&&

JWA/AHN