Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 24, 2012, 1:39 PM AKST (22:39 UTC)

Expired

Jan 24, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

593 
FZAK51 PAJK 242239 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-250100-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG LOW ENTERING THE SE GULF TUE EVENING WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE LATE WED MORNING
AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  

$$

PKZ011-250100-
GLACIER BAY-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-250100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-250100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-250100-
ICY STRAIT-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-250100-
CROSS SOUND-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-250100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-250100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-250100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-250100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-250100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-250100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
139 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 24, 5:21 AM AKST, 8 hours 18 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
521 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...965 MB LOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE N AND
INLAND OVER CENTRAL SE AK THIS MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES NRN SE AK THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SE
GULF BY THIS EVENING...THEN INLAND OVER CENTRAL SE AK LATE
TONIGHT. USED THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST HANDLE ON THE LOWS AS
OF 06Z LAST EVENING.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...AND WINDS.
BASED ON LOW TRACKS...THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SNOW THRU TONIGHT....ALBEIT A WET SNOW AROUND THE PAJN/PAOH
AREAS. SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN TO THE S...EXCEPT HYDER WILL SEE WET
SNOW THRU TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE
PAGN/PASI/PAPG AREAS THIS MORNING. AS FOR AMOUNTS...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR IN THE
PAJN/PAOH/PAHN AND HYDER AREAS BEGINNING TONIGHT AS SECOND LOW
MOVES IN. HAVE ISSUED/CONTINUED THE WS WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES.
HAVE ISSUES WW ADVYS FOR PAGY/PAGS/PAEL AREAS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
COULD SEE UP TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREAS
TONIGHT...AND UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVY AREAS TONIGHT.

 AS FOR WINDS...HAVE KEPT STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND
28. THERE WILL BE 2 PERIODS OF STRONG WIND IN 27...THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. 28 WILL SEE THEIR STRONG WINDS MAINLY
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE CLOSE ALSO LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE GALES FOR MUCH OF THE SE GULF AND SRN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL
AS NRN LYNN CANAL...WITH SCA WINDS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA.
ONLY AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE SCA WINDS THRU TONIGHT ARE MARINE
ZONES 52 AND 53...BUT 52 DOES HAVE SCA FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE
REMAINS OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM EXITING THE PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH
ON WED. THE REMAINING PRECIP WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND
WITH THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST, WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS BY WED EVENING. THROUGH EARLY
FRI, 850 MB TEMP WILL REMAIN AROUND -10 TO -14 C. COLD ENOUGH THAT
THE PRECIP, THAT WILL FALL FROM THE THREE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THAT TIME, WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TROUGH ONE
SHOWS UP FOR WED EVENING, NUMBER TWO WILL MOVE MAINLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURS, AND NUMBER THREE WILL BE LATE THURS
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW FALL FROM THESE WAVES BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN GIVING US THE COLDER
WEATHER LIFTS NORTH. REPLACING IT WILL BE GENERAL SW TO W FLOW
THAT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT BEGINS TO LAG AFTER FRI AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING AT US FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE EASTERLY TRACK RECENTLY
WITH THE LOW NOW HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE GFS AND
THE SE GULF IN THE EC. AGREEMENT GETS EVEN WORSE FOR THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWING THAT.

DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES AS IT HAD THE
BEST CONSISTENCY FROM LAST NIGHT AND HAD DECENT INITIALIZATION
THIS MORNING. FARTHER OUT USED A BLEND TOWARD THE HPC DATA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE OUT TO FRI THEN
DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ021-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ020-022.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-035-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-033-034-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/EAL

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.