Gale Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK

649 
FZAK67 PAJK 242226 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
126 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-250100-
126 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG LOW ENTERING THE SE GULF TUE EVENING WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE LATE WED MORNING
AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  

$$

PKZ310-250100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
126 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING
TO 14 FT LATE.
.WED...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MIXED WITH RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SNOW SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
BREAK IN PRECIP WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS A
STRONG 965MB LOW IS DRIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
WILL BE JUST WEST OF POW BY TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS NW AND FORMS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
TUE AFTERNOON.

 SO WITH THAT SAID...THE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WILL INCREASE TO
GALES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AREAS ALONG WITH GALES IN CLARENCE
STRAIT. THE RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE NEAR HYDER
THROUGH TUE AND REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. SO WILL ISSUE A
WSW FOR UP TO 10 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR HYDER. THE CENTRAL
AREAS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BUT AS WARMER AIR AND THE FLOW VEERS
AROUND TO THE SE THEY WILL WARM AND MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL ALSO START AS A MIX AND THEN GO TO RAIN IN THE LATE
MORNING BUT THE PASI WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THE MORNING
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS. THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE SOME PRECIP WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF
ZONES 20 AND 21 AS THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP
SOME WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE JUNEAU AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT
DUE TO THE EAST WINDS THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS TO AROUND
2 INCHES AND SOUTH OF TAKU INLET THEY WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FAR INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE THE SNOW SLOWLY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY A THE NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY KEEP
THE PRECIP AT BAY FOR A LITTLE BUT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA.

 THE MARINE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WILL INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFTS TO GALES ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES AND
CROSS SOUND AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX TO BE FROM
30 TO 20 KT.

 THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TACK OF THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH. USED A BLEND OF THE EC/NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST AT 12Z THIS MORNING

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING A DEEP MEAN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AND
LIFTING THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF
HAS MADE ITS WAY MORE IN LINE WITH THE NCEP MODELS. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

 A 960 MB LOW ENTERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE NIGHT THEN QUICKLY
JUMP TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH THE
STORM TRACK...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ELFIN COVE SOUTHEAST TO JUNEAU TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARNING LEVEL SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HAINES
AREA WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR GLACIER
BAY...HOONAH...ANGOON AND JUNEAU. SKAGWAY MAY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW AMOUNT. A STRONG HIGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MAY NEED TO ADD STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

 BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...A COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM QUITE
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AS A DOMINANT DYNAMIC CYCLONE
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THE HPC APPROACH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. BLENDED GRIDS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE END WITH THE HPC OUTPUTS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE MEAN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKAN
INTERIOR AND THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL MORE LOWS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ACTIVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ020-021-024-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-051>053.

&&

ABJ/AHN