Small Craft Advisory 564, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A 1004MB LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVES EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH A TRIPLE POINT NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PORT ALEXANDER EAST TO PETERSBURG...AND
PATCHY FOG FORMS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS CONTINUE DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND
RADIATION COOLING HAS CAUSED MERCURY READING DROP TO AROUND
30 DEGREES.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MID
MORNING. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12 FOR ITS
BEST INITIALIZATION AND HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

 WITH THE LOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS
THE OUTSIDE WATERS EXPAND EAST TO COVER SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH LESS CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA...RADIATION COOLING
WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE COLD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RIDGE PLANTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE EARLY MORNING MAY YIELD SOME RADIATIONAL PATCHY FOG
OVER THE INSIDE CHANNELS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FRONT WITH
PARENT LOW SITUATED IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS RAISING WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS TO GALE FORCE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST GFS AND EC ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE STRENGTH OF IT, AS WELL AS
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. STUCK TO AN EC
SOLUTION OVER GFS AS IT SEEMED TO OFFER A LITTLE MORE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN GFS AND NAM'S OUTLIER POSITION. NAM SIGNALED A
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH AN OPEN WAVE NEAR KODIAK RATHER THAN A LOW IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OFFERED BY THE EC AND GFS. EC RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING AND BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TURN SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FOR OUTSIDE WATERS DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HOLDS OFF ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG BARONOF ISLAND UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIDGE WILL LIKELY REBUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH SPEED. GFS HINTS AT A DIRTIER RIDGE
WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVES RIDES NORTHEASTWARD INTO YAKUTAT AND POSSIBLY CROSS
SOUND. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE NOT
AS WET AS IN THE PAST WITH SOME DRY DAYS ESPECIALLY FROM ICY
STRAIT SOUTH.

WENT WITH MAINLY EC FOR PRESSURE FIELD WITH A LITTLE OF THE GFS
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND THURSDAY LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC WITH A LITTLE HPC MIXED IN. FOR PRECIPITATION FIELDS LEANED ON
EC WITH A LITTLE GFS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/JWA