Gale Warning 317, NWS Juneau, AK

644 
FZAK51 PAJK 012342
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-021400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TUE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE OUTER COAST ON WED. 

$$

PKZ011-021400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-021400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-021400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-021400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-021400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. STRONG
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-021400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-021400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-021400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. STRONG GUSTS
AROUND 50 KT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-021400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-021400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. STRONG GUSTS TO 50 KT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...EAST WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-021400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A 1004MB LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOVES EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH A TRIPLE POINT NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PORT ALEXANDER EAST TO PETERSBURG...AND
PATCHY FOG FORMS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. CLOUDS CONTINUE DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND
RADIATION COOLING HAS CAUSED MERCURY READING DROP TO AROUND
30 DEGREES.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MID
MORNING. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12 FOR ITS
BEST INITIALIZATION AND HANDLING OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

 WITH THE LOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS
THE OUTSIDE WATERS EXPAND EAST TO COVER SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH LESS CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA...RADIATION COOLING
WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE COLD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RIDGE PLANTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE EARLY MORNING MAY YIELD SOME RADIATIONAL PATCHY FOG
OVER THE INSIDE CHANNELS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FRONT WITH
PARENT LOW SITUATED IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS RAISING WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS TO GALE FORCE BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST GFS AND EC ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE STRENGTH OF IT, AS WELL AS
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. STUCK TO AN EC
SOLUTION OVER GFS AS IT SEEMED TO OFFER A LITTLE MORE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN GFS AND NAM'S OUTLIER POSITION. NAM SIGNALED A
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH AN OPEN WAVE NEAR KODIAK RATHER THAN A LOW IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OFFERED BY THE EC AND GFS. EC RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING AND BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TURN SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FOR OUTSIDE WATERS DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART HOLDS OFF ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG BARONOF ISLAND UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIDGE WILL LIKELY REBUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH SPEED. GFS HINTS AT A DIRTIER RIDGE
WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVES RIDES NORTHEASTWARD INTO YAKUTAT AND POSSIBLY CROSS
SOUND. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE NOT
AS WET AS IN THE PAST WITH SOME DRY DAYS ESPECIALLY FROM ICY
STRAIT SOUTH.

WENT WITH MAINLY EC FOR PRESSURE FIELD WITH A LITTLE OF THE GFS
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND THURSDAY LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC WITH A LITTLE HPC MIXED IN. FOR PRECIPITATION FIELDS LEANED ON
EC WITH A LITTLE GFS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/JWA