Small Craft Advisory 149, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 23, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 23, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

103 
FZAK51 PAJK 231233
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-240100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-240100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-240100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-240100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-240100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-240100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SW
SWELL IN THE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-240100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-240100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-240100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT...
EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-240100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-240100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-240100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT... EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Feb 22, 3:43 PM AKST, 12 hours 17 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN BEGIN TO BACK TO A MORE SSW FLOW BY LATE THU. A SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CLOSE TO
CURRENT PRESSURE GRIDS SO MADE NO CHANGE TO THOSE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOWFALL. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY
TONIGHT AND THU. THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE...SO EXPECT THE MOST
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT. ONE ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MIX IN.
THINK SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THINK AN INCH
OR TWO IS LIKELY IN THE PAJN AND PAEL AREAS TONIGHT. IF THE
SHOWERS START TRAINING THOUGH...MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
S...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT...AND WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
TRANSITION TOWARD SNOW TO OCCUR. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS E OF THE
AREA THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE N LATE TONIGHT
AND THU...AND POPS DROP SLOWLY DURING THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE GULF AND
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AND THU. LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND WILL
BOTH START WITH SCA LEVEL S AND W WINDS RESPECTIVELY...THEN DROP
BELOW SCA DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE GULF WILL START WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS...WITH THOSE DROPPING BELOW SCA BY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH THOUGH SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE KEPT GOING AFTER WINDS
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WAS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE MAIN IDEA. LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THIS WILL INCREASE
STRENGTHEN AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY EARLY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA. THE INVERTED THROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

THE SHARP RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT AND WEAKENS AS
IT REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL
BE FALLING APART. MEANWHILE A STRONG STORM WILL MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING WITH VIGOROUS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE AREAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED FORECASTS ARE LOOKING TO CONTINUE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD TO THE WEEKEND AND THE LATER
PORTIONS OF IT ARE LOWERING AS THE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT FEATURES ARE STARTING THE DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE FULL
TIMING/TRACK OF THE FRONT FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.