Small Craft Advisory 148, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN BEGIN TO BACK TO A MORE SSW FLOW BY LATE THU. A SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CLOSE TO
CURRENT PRESSURE GRIDS SO MADE NO CHANGE TO THOSE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOWFALL. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY
TONIGHT AND THU. THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE...SO EXPECT THE MOST
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT. ONE ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MIX IN.
THINK SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THINK AN INCH
OR TWO IS LIKELY IN THE PAJN AND PAEL AREAS TONIGHT. IF THE
SHOWERS START TRAINING THOUGH...MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
S...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT...AND WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
TRANSITION TOWARD SNOW TO OCCUR. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS E OF THE
AREA THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE N LATE TONIGHT
AND THU...AND POPS DROP SLOWLY DURING THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE GULF AND
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AND THU. LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND WILL
BOTH START WITH SCA LEVEL S AND W WINDS RESPECTIVELY...THEN DROP
BELOW SCA DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE GULF WILL START WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS...WITH THOSE DROPPING BELOW SCA BY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH THOUGH SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE KEPT GOING AFTER WINDS
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WAS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE MAIN IDEA. LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THIS WILL INCREASE
STRENGTHEN AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY EARLY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA. THE INVERTED THROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

THE SHARP RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT AND WEAKENS AS
IT REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL
BE FALLING APART. MEANWHILE A STRONG STORM WILL MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING WITH VIGOROUS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE AREAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED FORECASTS ARE LOOKING TO CONTINUE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD TO THE WEEKEND AND THE LATER
PORTIONS OF IT ARE LOWERING AS THE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT FEATURES ARE STARTING THE DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE FULL
TIMING/TRACK OF THE FRONT FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK