Small Craft Advisory 147, NWS Juneau, AK

719 
FZAK52 PAJK 230430 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AK GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM THE
SOUTH ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
730 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

484 
FZAK52 PAJK 231231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN BEGIN TO BACK TO A MORE SSW FLOW BY LATE THU. A SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CLOSE TO
CURRENT PRESSURE GRIDS SO MADE NO CHANGE TO THOSE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOWFALL. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY
TONIGHT AND THU. THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE...SO EXPECT THE MOST
SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT. ONE ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MIX IN.
THINK SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THINK AN INCH
OR TWO IS LIKELY IN THE PAJN AND PAEL AREAS TONIGHT. IF THE
SHOWERS START TRAINING THOUGH...MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
S...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT...AND WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
TRANSITION TOWARD SNOW TO OCCUR. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS E OF THE
AREA THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE N LATE TONIGHT
AND THU...AND POPS DROP SLOWLY DURING THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE GULF AND
INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AND THU. LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND WILL
BOTH START WITH SCA LEVEL S AND W WINDS RESPECTIVELY...THEN DROP
BELOW SCA DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE GULF WILL START WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS...WITH THOSE DROPPING BELOW SCA BY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH THOUGH SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE KEPT GOING AFTER WINDS
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WAS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE MAIN IDEA. LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND THIS WILL INCREASE
STRENGTHEN AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY EARLY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA. THE INVERTED THROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME DRYING CONDITIONS FOR
THE PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

THE SHARP RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT AND WEAKENS AS
IT REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL
BE FALLING APART. MEANWHILE A STRONG STORM WILL MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING WITH VIGOROUS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE AREAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED FORECASTS ARE LOOKING TO CONTINUE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD TO THE WEEKEND AND THE LATER
PORTIONS OF IT ARE LOWERING AS THE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SATURDAY
NIGHT FEATURES ARE STARTING THE DOWNWARD SLIDE AS THE FULL
TIMING/TRACK OF THE FRONT FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK