Gale Warning 71, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 19, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 19, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

272 
FZAK51 PAJK 191250
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-200100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG COLD NORTH AND EAST GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A 960 MB GALE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO WEST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW AND STRONG EAST WIND.  

$$

PKZ011-200100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-200100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-200100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-200100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-200100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-200100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-200100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-200100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-200100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-200100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-200100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 18, 4:10 PM AKST, 11 hours 50 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN ARE UNDER
WAY NOW. DEEP LAYER OF SURFACE COLD AIR AROUND 6000 FEET THICK
YESTERDAY IS DOWN TODAY TO AROUND 4000 FEET TODAY. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE YUKON WEAKENS AND VERY COLD OUTFLOW AIR
DIMINISHES. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR
TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW AS WARM
OR WARMER THAN TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT KEEPING UP VERY WELL AT
ALL WITH THIS CHANGING AIR MASS, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ONLY AVERAGE.

A LOW IS APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN, THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND CANADA WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
STRONGER TOMORROW AS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAWS CLOSER
TO THE PANHANDLE. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH WHILE
LOWER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A
CRITICAL LEVEL WILL SET UP AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A TAKU WIND EVENT
WILL TAKE SHAPE. HAVE STRONG WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.

STILL NO POP IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST, SO RESIDENTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CAN EXPECT TO ENJOY ONE MORE CLEAR NIGHT AND ONE
MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

 &&

.LONG TERM...

...A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BATTLE A DEEP AND VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

A SECOND STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH RAIN. SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER...CONDFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF EACH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AND THUS TRIED TO SET A TREND OF SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH WINDS IN NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SPREADING OF SNOW NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GALES WILL BE THE NORM AND DO EXPECT SOME STORM AND DEFINITELY
STORM FORCE GUSTS AS LOWS PASS UNDER PANHANDLE. HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONFIDENCE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS
ALL PANHANDLE BUT TIMING AND LOCATION STILL AN ISSUE.

THERE IS ALSO SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A COLD AND
DRY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED THE 12Z NAM12 FOR DAYS 3-4.5 AND TRANSITIONED TO THE HPC
SOLUTIONS DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ034-035.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-035-043.

&&

FRITSCH/MM

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

AKZ017>029-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
250 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BATTLE A DEEP AND VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

A SECOND STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LOW
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE FOR FAR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. THIS WOULD GENERALLY MEAN MORE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH THAN THE NORTH...AND IF IT TRACKS TOO
FAR EAST IT WOULD DIMINISH THE SNOW THREAT OVER THE NORTH.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...FREEZING SPRAY...AND
HEAVY SNOW. KEEP UPDATED ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT
WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
AVAILABLE FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.