Gale Warning 70, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN ARE UNDER
WAY NOW. DEEP LAYER OF SURFACE COLD AIR AROUND 6000 FEET THICK
YESTERDAY IS DOWN TODAY TO AROUND 4000 FEET TODAY. AM EXPECTING
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE YUKON WEAKENS AND VERY COLD OUTFLOW AIR
DIMINISHES. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR
TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW AS WARM
OR WARMER THAN TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT KEEPING UP VERY WELL AT
ALL WITH THIS CHANGING AIR MASS, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ONLY AVERAGE.

A LOW IS APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN, THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND CANADA WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
STRONGER TOMORROW AS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAWS CLOSER
TO THE PANHANDLE. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH WHILE
LOWER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A
CRITICAL LEVEL WILL SET UP AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A TAKU WIND EVENT
WILL TAKE SHAPE. HAVE STRONG WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR
SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.

STILL NO POP IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST, SO RESIDENTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CAN EXPECT TO ENJOY ONE MORE CLEAR NIGHT AND ONE
MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

 &&

.LONG TERM...

...A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BATTLE A DEEP AND VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

A SECOND STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT WILL LIKELY MIX
WITH RAIN. SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER...CONDFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF EACH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AND THUS TRIED TO SET A TREND OF SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH WINDS IN NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE SPREADING OF SNOW NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GALES WILL BE THE NORM AND DO EXPECT SOME STORM AND DEFINITELY
STORM FORCE GUSTS AS LOWS PASS UNDER PANHANDLE. HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONFIDENCE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS
ALL PANHANDLE BUT TIMING AND LOCATION STILL AN ISSUE.

THERE IS ALSO SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A COLD AND
DRY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED THE 12Z NAM12 FOR DAYS 3-4.5 AND TRANSITIONED TO THE HPC
SOLUTIONS DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ034-035.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-035-043.

&&

FRITSCH/MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

AKZ017>029-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
250 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BATTLE A DEEP AND VERY COLD AIR MASS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND STRONG
WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

A SECOND STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL AND PART OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LOW
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE FOR FAR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. THIS WOULD GENERALLY MEAN MORE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH THAN THE NORTH...AND IF IT TRACKS TOO
FAR EAST IT WOULD DIMINISH THE SNOW THREAT OVER THE NORTH.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...LOW WIND CHILLS...FREEZING SPRAY...AND
HEAVY SNOW. KEEP UPDATED ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT
WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
AVAILABLE FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.