Gale Warning 422, NWS Juneau, AK

465 
FZAK51 PAJK 291804 CCA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-300100-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 965 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON AND WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.    

$$

PKZ011-300100-
GLACIER BAY-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN
THE EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-300100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 60 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-300100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

CORRECTED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-300100-
ICY STRAIT-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN
THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-300100-
CROSS SOUND-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW IN
THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
 

$$

PKZ031-300100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-300100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-300100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-300100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 75 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-300100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-300100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
905 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...WIND REMAINS THE BIG ISSUE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. TAKU WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS IT
GUSTING INTO THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE IN THE DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS
AREA. STRONG OUTFLOW OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
RACING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. SUSTAINED OF WINDS 40 TO
50 WITH GUSTS 60+ KTS IN LYNN CANAL. GUSTS THROUGH THE TAKU RIVER
VALLEY ALSO BLOWING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS PATTERN TOO. GALES IN
THE MARINE AREAS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING SPRAY OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNEL REGIONS.

 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AGAIN. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO GET EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO TO THE
PANHANDLE BEFORE SHEARING APART TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND
SNOW OR MIX ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS OR THE INNER CHANNELS AS
YOU WORK YOUR WAY NORTH. PRIMARILY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND IT
SHOULD BE SNOW. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

 THROUGH THURSDAY AM EXPECTING THAT THE WINDS WILL BE BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND SHOULD BE
SPREADING NORTH SLOWLY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RATHER INTERESTING PATTERN IN THE WORKS FOR THE
LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
STRONG COLD HIGH IN CANADA AND ITS OUTFLOW VS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF AND ITS MOIST S TO SE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND FOR
THE FORECAST IS WET AND COOL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. PRECIP
DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND BECOMING WINDIER. FOLLOWED BY SKIES STARTING TO BREAK UP WITH
VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM THE HIGH IN CANADA WILL BE
GAINING GROUND WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AWAY
OVER THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW WIND WILL STILL BE STRONG AND FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY FOR THE NORTH AND MAY
EVEN CAUSE CLEARING SKIES IN THAT AREA ON FRI. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
STILL BE CRANKING OVER IN THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS. HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS IN FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU,
SKAGWAY, AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
IN CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENS AWAY.

 BY SAT AND SAT NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING BACK AS IT
SENDS A DECENT STRENGTH LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SPREADING
MORE FRONTAL BANDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A STEADY SUPPLY OF LIGHT SNOW AS WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALL
AT ONCE. IT WILL MORE BE LIKE 1 TO 4 INCHES HERE AND THERE
EVERYDAY OR SO.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON USING THE NAM AND EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES AS THEY
DEPICTED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS RATHER
WELL. USED HPC AND EC FOR THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ020-022-023-029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL