Gale Warning 356, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...WIND REMAINS THE BIG ISSUE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. TAKU WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS IT
GUSTING INTO THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE IN THE DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS
AREA. STRONG OUTFLOW OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
RACING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. SUSTAINED OF WINDS 40 TO
50 WITH GUSTS 60+ KTS IN LYNN CANAL. GUSTS THROUGH THE TAKU RIVER
VALLEY ALSO BLOWING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS PATTERN TOO. GALES IN
THE MARINE AREAS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING SPRAY OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNEL REGIONS.

 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AGAIN. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO GET EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO TO THE
PANHANDLE BEFORE SHEARING APART TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND
SNOW OR MIX ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS OR THE INNER CHANNELS AS
YOU WORK YOUR WAY NORTH. PRIMARILY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND IT
SHOULD BE SNOW. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

 THROUGH THURSDAY AM EXPECTING THAT THE WINDS WILL BE BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND SHOULD BE
SPREADING NORTH SLOWLY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RATHER INTERESTING PATTERN IN THE WORKS FOR THE
LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
STRONG COLD HIGH IN CANADA AND ITS OUTFLOW VS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF AND ITS MOIST S TO SE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND FOR
THE FORECAST IS WET AND COOL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. PRECIP
DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND BECOMING WINDIER. FOLLOWED BY SKIES STARTING TO BREAK UP WITH
VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM THE HIGH IN CANADA WILL BE
GAINING GROUND WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AWAY
OVER THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW WIND WILL STILL BE STRONG AND FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY FOR THE NORTH AND MAY
EVEN CAUSE CLEARING SKIES IN THAT AREA ON FRI. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
STILL BE CRANKING OVER IN THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS. HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS IN FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU,
SKAGWAY, AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
IN CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENS AWAY.

 BY SAT AND SAT NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING BACK AS IT
SENDS A DECENT STRENGTH LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SPREADING
MORE FRONTAL BANDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A STEADY SUPPLY OF LIGHT SNOW AS WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALL
AT ONCE. IT WILL MORE BE LIKE 1 TO 4 INCHES HERE AND THERE
EVERYDAY OR SO.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON USING THE NAM AND EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES AS THEY
DEPICTED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS RATHER
WELL. USED HPC AND EC FOR THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ020-022-023-029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL