Gale Warning 419, NWS Juneau, AK

008 
FZAK52 PAJK 290620 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300030-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 965 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON AND WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

$$

PKZ041-300030-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300030-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300030-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13
FT. 
.THU...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300030-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300030-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
918 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST HALF...NE WIND 30 KT. NORTHWEST HALF...NE WIND
TO 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SOUTHEAST HALF NE WIND TO 30 KT. NORTHWEST HALF NE WIND TO
15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SOUTHEAST HALF E WIND 30 KT. NORTHWEST HALF NE WIND TO
15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

668 
FZAK52 PAJK 291338
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 965 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE YUKON AND WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.    

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS IN SOUTHEAST HALF.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SEAS IN SOUTHEAST HALF.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKST WED NOV 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...WIND REMAINS THE BIG ISSUE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. TAKU WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS IT
GUSTING INTO THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE IN THE DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS
AREA. STRONG OUTFLOW OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
RACING THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. SUSTAINED OF WINDS 40 TO
50 WITH GUSTS 60+ KTS IN LYNN CANAL. GUSTS THROUGH THE TAKU RIVER
VALLEY ALSO BLOWING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS PATTERN TOO. GALES IN
THE MARINE AREAS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FREEZING SPRAY OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNEL REGIONS.

 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AGAIN. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO GET EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO TO THE
PANHANDLE BEFORE SHEARING APART TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND
SNOW OR MIX ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS OR THE INNER CHANNELS AS
YOU WORK YOUR WAY NORTH. PRIMARILY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND IT
SHOULD BE SNOW. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF LARGE
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

 THROUGH THURSDAY AM EXPECTING THAT THE WINDS WILL BE BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND SHOULD BE
SPREADING NORTH SLOWLY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RATHER INTERESTING PATTERN IN THE WORKS FOR THE
LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
STRONG COLD HIGH IN CANADA AND ITS OUTFLOW VS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF AND ITS MOIST S TO SE FLOW. THE GENERAL TREND FOR
THE FORECAST IS WET AND COOL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. PRECIP
DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR
AND BECOMING WINDIER. FOLLOWED BY SKIES STARTING TO BREAK UP WITH
VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM THE HIGH IN CANADA WILL BE
GAINING GROUND WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AWAY
OVER THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW WIND WILL STILL BE STRONG AND FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP AT BAY FOR THE NORTH AND MAY
EVEN CAUSE CLEARING SKIES IN THAT AREA ON FRI. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
STILL BE CRANKING OVER IN THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS. HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND GUSTY WINDS IN FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU,
SKAGWAY, AND THE PASSES EAST OF YAKUTAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
IN CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENS AWAY.

 BY SAT AND SAT NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING BACK AS IT
SENDS A DECENT STRENGTH LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SPREADING
MORE FRONTAL BANDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE A STEADY SUPPLY OF LIGHT SNOW AS WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION ALL
AT ONCE. IT WILL MORE BE LIKE 1 TO 4 INCHES HERE AND THERE
EVERYDAY OR SO.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECIDED ON USING THE NAM AND EC FOR MID RANGE UPDATES AS THEY
DEPICTED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS RATHER
WELL. USED HPC AND EC FOR THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ020-022-023-029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-041>043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL