Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
648 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
BERING STORM CENTER...PROBABLY AROUND 960 MB...IS NOW NEAR
50N/177E. CURRENT MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SIMILAR SURFACE WIND
FIELDS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM EVENT OVER THE WEST
COAST/NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE MAIN LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO
NEAR 54N/A71W BY 00Z SUN WHILE STARTING TO FILL....WHILE A
NARROW TROUGH EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO PRODUCE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH. MODEL
QPFS VARY BUT ARE ALL SIGNIFICANT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12
INCHES EXPECTED IN ZONES AKZ210-AKZ211...UP TO 6 INCHES IN
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ209.

CURRENT MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
IN BROOKS RANGE PASSES BEGINNING SAT...LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN THEN MOVES NORTH.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUING THE
TREND OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NW CANADA AND
THE NE AK MAINLAND...HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WARM 850 MB
TEMPS...NEAR OR ABOVE 0C IN MANY AREAS...OVER NRN AK.
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN STRONG INVERSIONS WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE BERING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ245.
&&

RF FEB 12