Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Fairbanks, AK

499 
FZAK52 PAFG 251021
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-260130-
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF POINT LAY WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB AS IT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-260130-
NORTON SOUND-
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-260130-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-260130-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-260130-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
221 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

RL/SDB AUG 12

771 
FZAK52 PAFG 252153
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-261400-
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE 1003 MB 175 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
INLAND OVER INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ200-261400-
NORTON SOUND-
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. FOG. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-261400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG...
RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-261400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-261400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
153 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/DA AUG 12

206 
FZAK52 PAFG 261037
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-270145-
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR MAINLAND AND WEAKEN TODAY. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MONDAY.

$$

PKZ200-270145-
NORTON SOUND-
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN...FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-270145-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-270145-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ220-270145-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
237 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SDB/CB AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
642 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LISBURNE
PENINSULA 4AM SAT...TO 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW 4PM SAT AND
THEN CURVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND 4AM MON. TROUGH FROM
LOW TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO LISBURNE TO FAIRBANKS
4AM SAT...TO BARROW TO NORTHWAY 4PM SAT. SECOND TROUGH MOVING
AROUND LOW TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND 4AM MON.

SURFACE...975 MB LOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 989 MB 60 MILES NORTH OF LISBURNE 4AM
SAT...AND TO 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW 4AM SUN WEAKENING TO
997 MB. LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND 10AM SUN AT 1003 MB AND TO UNALAKLEET 4PM SUN THEN
DISSIPATING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO
UNALAKLEET TO NUNIVAK ISLAND RAPIDLY OCCLUDING THIS MORNING WITH
OCCLUSION MOVING TO WAINWRIGHT-ANAKTUVUK PASS TO TANANA 4PM FRI
AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO 30 MILES EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION 4AM SAT
CONTINUING NORTH AND EAST.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN...THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SOME ON EXACT POSITION OF LOW OVER NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AT THAT
TIME BUT LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN MUCH BY THEN.

NORTH SLOPE...SOME RAIN FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH OCCLUSION
TODAY...LINGERING TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CHUKCHI SEA
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30
KT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL HIGH
SURF ISSUES FOR ZONE 201 ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE WEST.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE STRONG LOW AND THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA...INCLUDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
END AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES FURTHER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN ACTION
WILL BE THE STORM SURGE AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND AT
KIVALINA...DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE STRONG
WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COAST TODAY...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD BE ENDED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT OCCLUDES. FINALLY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DOSE OF RAIN AND FOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY SPOTS...KEEPING THE RIVERS
THERE ELEVATED. THE MAX STORM SURGE VALUES FOR NORTON SOUND FROM
THE 06Z GFS RUN HAVE INCHED UP ABOUT TWO TO 4 TENTHS OF A FOOT
FROM THE 00Z OUTPUT...BUT THIS HAS NOT MATERIALLY CHANGED ANY
THINKING IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WHICH ARE CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. THOUGH ZONE 209 IN PARTICULAR KOTZEBUE IS NOT INCLUDED
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES...THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SURGE VALUES RISE BY UP TO 2
FEET DURING THIS TIME.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS AREA
WITH/BEHIND OCCLUSION...WILL TRANSITION FROM PERIODS OF RAIN OVER
CENTRAL INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY WHILE FARTHER EAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIRBANKS AREA TO SEE A PERIOD
OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AM...BUT NOT MUCH OTHERWISE.
TEMPS COOLING BEHIND THE OCCLUSION AS WESTERLY FLOW CHANGES THE
AIR MASS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL LIKELY KEEP STREAMS AND RIVERS NEAR OR AT BANK FULL.
EXPECT ONE THIRD TO NEAR ONE INCH RAINFALL THROUGH SAT OVER ZONES
208 AND 217,

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JL AUG 12