Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

790 
FZAK51 PAFG 242210
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-251400-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG 983 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO
100 NM WEST OF POINT LAY AS A 991 MB LOW BY 4AM SAT...THEN
WEAKEN TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY 4PM SUN IT WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 150
MILES NORTH OF BARROW.

$$

PKZ225-251400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...W 25 KT
TOWARD MORNING. NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS
9 FT. FOG... RAIN. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-251400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT TURNING SW. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG... RAIN. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-251400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-251400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-251400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
210 PM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CF/DJH AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 PM AKDT THU AUG 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. A STRONG 976
MB LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS FAR EAST RUSSIA AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA EARLY FRI MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS FROM NORTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL PUSH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH HIGH SURF. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR ANYWHERE OVER THE
WEST COAST. HOWEVER HIGH SURF WILL OCCUR AND WILL CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING OVER LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE
KIVALINA AREA. THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND WILL NOT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AT A HIGH VELOCITY. THIS
IS THE REASONING FOR OPTING FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY INSTEAD OF
ANYTHING MORE SEVERE.

MODERATE RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND THIS WILL ADD TO THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAGOON AREA AROUND KIVALINA BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD NOT OCCUR THAT WOULD ADD TO FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
LAGOON AREA.

EXPECT HIGH SURF IN NORTON SOUND. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR ZONES 211 AND 212. THE NOME COUNCIL ROAD WILL LIKELY
SEE WATER PUSHED OVER IT AS WELL AS POSSIBLY MINOR FLOODING IN AND
AROUND UNALAKLEET.

RAINFALL OVER THE WEST COAST FROM ABOUT THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY FRI AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL PUSH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR BY FRI NIGHT.

WHAT MAY BE ELUSIVE AT THE MOMENT IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS MAY
BECOME BEHIND THE LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT MAY
PRODUCE WINDS HIGHER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE
REPLACED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE RAINS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS HIGHER AND NEAR
BANK FULL IN SOME AREAS. EXPECT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF AUG 12