Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

768 
FZAK51 PAFG 251019
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-260130-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF POINT LAY WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB AS IT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 4PM SUN IT WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 150 MILES NORTH OF BARROW.

$$

PKZ225-260130-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-260130-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-260130-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-260130-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-260130-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
219 AM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RL/SDB AUG 12

877 
FZAK51 PAFG 252158
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-261400-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE 1003 MB 175 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-261400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-261400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
6 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-261400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-261400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-261400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
158 PM AKDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/DA AUG 12

025 
FZAK51 PAFG 261035
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-270145-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 998 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
TO 1003 MB BY 10 AM AKDT MONDAY. A 1001 MB 250 NM NORTH OF MACKENZIE
BAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO 996 MB MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ225-270145-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-270145-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-270145-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-270145-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-270145-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
235 AM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB/CB AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
642 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LISBURNE
PENINSULA 4AM SAT...TO 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW 4PM SAT AND
THEN CURVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND 4AM MON. TROUGH FROM
LOW TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO LISBURNE TO FAIRBANKS
4AM SAT...TO BARROW TO NORTHWAY 4PM SAT. SECOND TROUGH MOVING
AROUND LOW TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND 4AM MON.

SURFACE...975 MB LOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 989 MB 60 MILES NORTH OF LISBURNE 4AM
SAT...AND TO 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW 4AM SUN WEAKENING TO
997 MB. LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND 10AM SUN AT 1003 MB AND TO UNALAKLEET 4PM SUN THEN
DISSIPATING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO
UNALAKLEET TO NUNIVAK ISLAND RAPIDLY OCCLUDING THIS MORNING WITH
OCCLUSION MOVING TO WAINWRIGHT-ANAKTUVUK PASS TO TANANA 4PM FRI
AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO 30 MILES EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION 4AM SAT
CONTINUING NORTH AND EAST.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN...THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SOME ON EXACT POSITION OF LOW OVER NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AT THAT
TIME BUT LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN MUCH BY THEN.

NORTH SLOPE...SOME RAIN FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH OCCLUSION
TODAY...LINGERING TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CHUKCHI SEA
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30
KT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL HIGH
SURF ISSUES FOR ZONE 201 ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE WEST.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE STRONG LOW AND THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA...INCLUDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
END AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES FURTHER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN ACTION
WILL BE THE STORM SURGE AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND AT
KIVALINA...DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE STRONG
WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COAST TODAY...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD BE ENDED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT OCCLUDES. FINALLY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DOSE OF RAIN AND FOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY SPOTS...KEEPING THE RIVERS
THERE ELEVATED. THE MAX STORM SURGE VALUES FOR NORTON SOUND FROM
THE 06Z GFS RUN HAVE INCHED UP ABOUT TWO TO 4 TENTHS OF A FOOT
FROM THE 00Z OUTPUT...BUT THIS HAS NOT MATERIALLY CHANGED ANY
THINKING IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WHICH ARE CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. THOUGH ZONE 209 IN PARTICULAR KOTZEBUE IS NOT INCLUDED
CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES...THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THE
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SURGE VALUES RISE BY UP TO 2
FEET DURING THIS TIME.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS AREA
WITH/BEHIND OCCLUSION...WILL TRANSITION FROM PERIODS OF RAIN OVER
CENTRAL INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY WHILE FARTHER EAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIRBANKS AREA TO SEE A PERIOD
OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AM...BUT NOT MUCH OTHERWISE.
TEMPS COOLING BEHIND THE OCCLUSION AS WESTERLY FLOW CHANGES THE
AIR MASS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL LIKELY KEEP STREAMS AND RIVERS NEAR OR AT BANK FULL.
EXPECT ONE THIRD TO NEAR ONE INCH RAINFALL THROUGH SAT OVER ZONES
208 AND 217,

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JL AUG 12