High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1154 AM AKDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALASKA WILL BE REPLACED BY A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE WEST COAST
AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CAUSE A CONTINUATION
OF RAIN OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA. ADDITIONALLY RAIN WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN ON EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AND ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE.

985 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR
WILL MODE TO ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BUT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE PERSISTING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS AS HEIGHTS FALL AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 30-40 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA...NORTON SOUND...CHUKCHI SEA...AND OUTER KOTZEBUE
SOUND WED AND WED EVENING...BEGINNING TO DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED SEA LEVELS IN NORTON
SOUND...ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST NORTHWEST OF CAPE
KRUSENSTERN...THE BERING SEA COAST NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE
RODNEY...AND ALONG THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST.

OVER NORTON SOUND...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SHORES WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET...ABOUT 2.5 FEET
IN THE NOME AREA. MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 30-35 KT WITH
SEAS OFFSHORE 6-8 FEET FROM PORT SAFETY WEST. WAVES WILL DIMINISH
SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE. AT NOME...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF
AROUND 2.5 FEET EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...WITH TIDES
4 TO 4.2 FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED SEA LEVELS AND
MODERATE SURF...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN NORTON
SOUND COAST...SEA LEVELS WILL MAX OUT AT ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL.

ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST FROM WEST OF CAPE RODNEY TO
WALES...SEA LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. MAXIMUM WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 40 KT WITH SEAS 9-10 FEET. WAVES WILL DIMINISH
SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE.

ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...SEA LEVELS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO 40 KT...SEAS TO 8-10
FEET OFFSHORE. WAVES WILL DIMINISH SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE.

ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST NORTHWEST OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN...
MAXIMUM SEA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.3 TO 1.8 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
30-40 KT FROM MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7-10 FEET OFFSHORE. WAVES WILL
DIMINISH SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE. AT KIVALINA...MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KT BUT PROBABLY
LASTING NO MORE THAN AROUND 12 HOURS IN DURATION BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA NORTH AND EAST OF CAPE
LISBURNE...SEA LEVELS WILL RISE TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WITH THE WINDS BEING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THE HIGHEST SEAS...7-10
FEET...WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK ALONG THIS SECTION OF THE COAST.

NEAR POINT HOPE...SEA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT NEAR 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 9-10 FEET OFFSHORE. WAVES
WILL DIMINISH SOME AS THEY BREAK ONSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH AT MANY
INTERIOR SITES WILL BE 30-35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH OVER MANY PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RED FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS AT SEVERAL GAGES IN ZONES 207 AND 208. SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE WEST COAST...PARTS OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODELS CONCUR WITH
ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 5+ INCHES IN ZONE 208...2-4 INCHES IN ZONE
207 AND PARTS OF ZONE 207. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ON SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ZONE 211 AND THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IN ZONES 210 MAY SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN.
A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ZONES 207 AND 208 LATER
TODAY. THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN ZONE 217 LATER
ON BUT THAT ZONE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

AUG 12