Flood Watch 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM AKDT WED AUG 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
984 MB LOW NEAR 66N/179E IN EASTERN SIBERIA IS PROGGED BY
CURRENT MODELS TO MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY 10 AM THURSDAY
FILLING TO 990 MB...WEAKENING FURTHER TO 994 MB BY 10 AM FRIDAY.
A 984 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RAIN CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES
IN ZONES 208-210-217.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON DECK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A 992 MB CENTER. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO
AROUND 990 MB EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT HAVE A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION
REINFORCED BY A STRONG EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE WEST COAST...NORTHWEST
ALASKA...AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD INTO CANADA...BRINGING
IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND TRIMMING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST FROM RED DOG PORT TO POINT HOPE THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 30-40 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY
THURSDAY. SEAS TO 7-11 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AS THE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEA LEVEL ELEVATION
FALLING TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. RED DOG TIDE GAGE IS
SHOWING TIDE CURRENTLY ABOUT 0.75-0.8 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE 1.0 FOOT PREDICTED BY THE STORM SURGE
MODEL.

ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST FROM WALES TO CAPE RODNEY...
SEA LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
AROUND 40 KT WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FEET OFFSHORE.

IN NORTON SOUND...SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM ELEVATION IN SEA LEVELS WILL BE 2 TO 3
FEET ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE RODNEY TO UNALAKLEET...AND 1.3 TO
2 FEET FROM SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET TO THE YUKON DELTA. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN SEA LEVEL...AROUND 3 FEET WILL BE IN NORTON BAY.
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

IN THE NOME AREA...THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 2.5 FEET
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM TIDES OF 4 TO 4.3 FEET.
HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SOUND NEAR NOME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 KT
PRODUCING SEAS OFFSHORE TO 6-8 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY COASTAL FLOODING
OR BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS IN THE NOME AREA. THE TIDE AT
NOME IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN IS CONTINUING IN ZONE 207 AND PARTS OF ZONE 208.
RED DOG MINE HAS REPORTED 4.0 INCHES IN THE LAST 48 HRS.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT 48 HR TOTALS INCLUDE 3.3 INCHES AT TAHINICHOK
RAWS...2.4 INCHES AT KIVALINA...1.6 INCHES AT WULIK RIVER
AND 1.4 INCHES AT KELLY. RECENT 12 HR AMOUNTS INCLUDE 1.7 INCHES
AT RED DOG...1.2 INCHES AT TAHINICHOK...AND 1.1 INCHES AT
KIVALINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
ZONES 207 AND 208 THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ZONE 217...RAINFALL OF
2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS SATURDAY. FLOOD
WATCH FOR ZONES 207-208 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ZONE 217.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-208...WILL BE ISSUED
 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ217...WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

RF AUG 12