Gale Warning 58, NWS Fairbanks, AK

705 
FZAK51 PAFG 221208
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-230215-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHEAST OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT EVENING AND
THEN DEVELOP A 990 MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ225-230215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-230215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-230215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-230215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-230215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

RF/CC SEP 12

197 
FZAK51 PAFG 222148
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-231300-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR PRUDHOE BAY EARLY SUN AM AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TO 80 N LATITUDE 10PM MON. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO POINT HOPE BY 10 AM SUN AS A 984 MB LOW
AND THEN MOVE TO 200 MILES WEST OF BARROW 4PM MON AS A 990 MB AND
TO NEAR BARROW 4AM TUE AS A 996 MB.

$$

PKZ225-231300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.MON...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-231300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. FOG...
RAIN. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING BY NOON. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-231300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-231300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-231300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
148 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JB/JL SEP 12

172 
FZAK51 PAFG 231152
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-240300-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 988 MB LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE TO 80 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CAPE LISBURNE BY 4 AM MONDAY. A WEAK 992 MB LOW 50 MILES EAST OF
PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BY 4 AM
MON DEEPENING TO 992 MB.


$$

PKZ225-240300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FOG...RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...SNOW. 
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-240300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-240300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-240300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...VARIABL WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-240300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
352 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING SEA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BC NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUKON
AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH STRONG
JET AND SHORTWAVE AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE BACK OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST TODAY. 500 MB WINDS NEAR 75 KTS DIMINISH AS
INTERIOR SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST.
CHINOOK FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW WEAKENS AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA.

DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE INTERIOR
LOW MOVES ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE.

UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD.

CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE AS A 65 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM BUT NO
CRITICAL LEVEL THEREFORE MINIMAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT TO WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ZONES 223
225 226 AND ZONE 227 NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATE SEASON FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONES
223 AND 226 AS MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S CONCURRENT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND BURNABLE FUELS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER ALASKA BY MID WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CC SEP 12