Gale Warning 47, NWS Fairbanks, AK

263 
FZAK69 PAFG 221208
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-230215-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1000 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHEAST OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA SAT EVENING AND
THEN DEVELOP A 990 MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ500-230215-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-230215-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-230215-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
408 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

RF/CC SEP 12

205 
FZAK69 PAFG 222221
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-231330-
221 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR PRUDHOE BAY EARLY SUN AM AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TO 80 N LATITUDE 10PM MON. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO POINT HOPE 10 AM SUN AT 984 MB AND
THEN MOVE TO 200 MILES WEST OF BARROW 4PM MON AT 990 MB AND TO
NEAR BARROW 4AM TUE AT 996 MB.

$$

PKZ500-231330-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
221 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-231330-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
221 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING. FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-231330-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
221 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JB/JL SEP 12

751 
FZAK69 PAFG 231150
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-240300-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 988 MB LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE TO 80 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CAPE LISBURNE BY 4 AM MONDAY. A WEAK 992 MB LOW 50 MILES EAST
OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BY
4 AM MONDAY DEEPENING TO 988 MB.

$$

PKZ500-240300-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. FOG
THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-240300-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
FOG THROUGH THE DAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-240300-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING SEA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BC NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUKON
AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH STRONG
JET AND SHORTWAVE AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE BACK OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST TODAY. 500 MB WINDS NEAR 75 KTS DIMINISH AS
INTERIOR SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST.
CHINOOK FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW WEAKENS AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA.

DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE INTERIOR
LOW MOVES ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE.

UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD.

CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE AS A 65 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM BUT NO
CRITICAL LEVEL THEREFORE MINIMAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT TO WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ZONES 223
225 226 AND ZONE 227 NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATE SEASON FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONES
223 AND 226 AS MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S CONCURRENT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND BURNABLE FUELS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER ALASKA BY MID WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CC SEP 12