Flood Watch 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

211 
WGAK69 PAFG 211933
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1133 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS NOW MAKING
ITS WAY DOWN THE NENANA RIVER. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ANOTHER
SEVERAL TENTHS OF A FOOT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FALL
LATE THIS EVENING.


AKZ225-220345-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-120922T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
1133 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK TO FERRY.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THE NENANA RIVER HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE NEAR BANK FULL AT THE 
  BRIDGE AT HEALY WITH A READING OF 13.9 FEET AT 10AM. WATER 
  LEVELS AT HEALY COULD RISE ANOTHER SEVERAL TENTHS OF A FOOT 
  AND CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. 

* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE NENANA RIVER FROM 
  CARLO CREEK TO FERRY. NO STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODED 
  BUT LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER SUCH AS BOAT LAUNCHES COULD HAVE 
  FLOODING. EROSION OF THE RIVER BANK IS LIKELY AS WELL. WATER 
  LEVELS AREA EXPECTED TO DROP LATE THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. POSSESSIONS NEAR
THE RIVER BANK SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

&&

$$

261 
WGAK69 PAFG 220330
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
730 PM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...THE FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

AKZ225-220430-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-120922T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
730 PM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1216 PM AKDT FRIDAY TO 1215 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK TO ITS MOUTH AT THE
TANANA RIVER...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK TO FERRY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 1216 PM AKDT FOR
THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS TO THE FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING SEA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BC NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUKON
AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIVE EASTWARD WITH STRONG
JET AND SHORTWAVE AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE BACK OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST TODAY. 500 MB WINDS NEAR 75 KTS DIMINISH AS
INTERIOR SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST.
CHINOOK FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW WEAKENS AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA.

DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INTERIOR LOW MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE INTERIOR
LOW MOVES ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE.

UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD.

CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE AS A 65 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM BUT NO
CRITICAL LEVEL THEREFORE MINIMAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT TO WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ZONES 223
225 226 AND ZONE 227 NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATE SEASON FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONES
223 AND 226 AS MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S CONCURRENT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND BURNABLE FUELS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER ALASKA BY MID WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CC SEP 12