Brisk Wind Advisory 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

328 
FZAK52 PAFG 301113
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-310215-
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW 125 NM NORTH OF POINT LAY WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB
NEAR CAPE LISBURNE BY 3 PM AKST TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A 1020 MB HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL
MOVE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF
LOWS WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-310215-
NORTON SOUND-
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-310215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.

$$

PKZ215-310215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT.
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-310215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 AM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT ALONG THE COAST FROM
POINT HOPE TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CB/RL JAN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
426 AM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP COLD 481 DM LOW IS JUST NORTH OF BARROW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 60
HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA
BY 00Z WED.

SURFACE...A 992 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA BY 00Z WED. A 1018 MB
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AK MONDAY.

INTERIOR...THE 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT AT FAIRBANKS AT 12Z FRIDAY
AT -34.7C WITH SLOW MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT EVER SINCE.
TEMPS AT THE SFC REMAIN QUITE COLD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VALLEY TEMPS IN THE 45 TO 60 BELOW RANGE.
THE SUN ANGLE GETTING A LITTLE HIGHER NOW (7 DEGREES AT FAIRBANKS)
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL RANGE OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BASED ON SOLAR
HEATING/SLIGHT MIXING ALONE WHICH SHOWED UP NICELY YESTERDAY ON
THE IR SATELLITE PICTS. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....MOST SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF OVERRUNNING SNOW LIKELY WILL
HAVE AN EVEN BIGGER HAND IN MODERATING TEMPS BY MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON MONDAY. THERE MAYBE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DENSE ICE FOG
LIKELY TO REFORM BY THIS EVENING. VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF
COMBUSTION. CLOUDS AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW NORTH OF
CAPE LISBURNE FOR 20 TO 35 MPH WIND ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
FOR SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS TO 55 BELOW. TEMPS
NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR A WIND CHILL WARNING...SO HAVE CANCELLED AND
REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE WIND IS MORE MARGINAL AT BARROW AND TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS COLD...BUT STILL SOME WIND CHILLS TO AROUND 50 BELOW
TODAY. WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THROUGH THE
PASSES IN ZONE 206 AS WIND CHILLS TO 75 BELOW HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
AT ANAKTUVUK PASS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WIND THROUGH THE PASSES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME BY TONIGHT
AS THE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

WEST COAST...CONTINUED COLD WITH SOME WIND CHILL CONCERNS.  ENOUGH
WIND AND LOW ENOUGH TEMPS IN PARTS OF ZONES 207 AND 209 FOR WIND
CHILL WARNINGS TODAY.  THE AREA FROM THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND IS IN A BIT OF A LULL AREA BETWEEN THE GRADIENT TO
THE NORTH AND A STRONGER GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING LOW. ENOUGH WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
214 AND 215 FOR SOME LOW WIND CHILLS TODAY THAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN ZONE 214.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE PATTERN BY LATE IN THE WEEK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT. WHETHER THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGING OR SLY FLOW ALOFT BY NEXT WEEKEND VARIES
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. THERE DOES AT LEAST SEEM TO BE
AGREEMENT THAT WHATEVER PANS OUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS IT
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS NORTHERN AK. THE CFS ACTUALLY HAS SOME
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR AT DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MAINLAND BY
WEEK 3. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE FROM THE COLD SINCE LATE DECEMBER REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT
AT LEAST SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE INDICATORS GIVE HOPE FOR THOSE
THAT DO NOT WANT THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO FEBRUARY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH YESTERDAY WAS 42 BELOW AT THE FAIRBANKS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH A LOW OF 50 BELOW. THIS WAS THE FIRST
50 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT SINCE JANUARY 27, 2006. THE HIGH OF 42
BELOW WAS THE COLDEST HIGH TEMP AT THE AIRPORT SINCE JANUARY 2,
2000. SO FAR TODAY...A LOW OF 51 BELOW WAS OBSERVED AT 1221 AM
THIS MORNING...THE 2ND 50 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT. A TOTAL OF 15
DAYS (INCLUDING TODAY, 1/29) WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 BELOW OR
COLDER AT THE AIRPORT. THIS TIES WITH 1972 FOR THE MOST 40 BELOW
DAYS IN JANUARY IN THE LAST 40 YEARS. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 21
SET BACK IN 1970 WILL REMAIN SAFE AS THERE ARE ONLY TWO MORE DAYS
IN THIS MONTH AFTER TODAY (WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN INCLUDED).

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ214-AKZ215.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ209.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

CB JAN 12