Brisk Wind Advisory 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

893 
FZAK52 PAFG 292304
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-301415-
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLAND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH ON MONDAY. 
A 980 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AT 979 MB BY MONDAY
EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-301415-
NORTON SOUND-
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-301415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-301415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-301415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
204 PM AKST SUN JAN 29 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. FOG... SNOW. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT.  
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CF/SDB JAN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS WITH JUST THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION DIFFERING BY LATE MON NIGHT. THE UKMET IS
VERY FAR OFF IN TERMS OF 500H LEVEL WHERE THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND 00Z WED IS WHEN THE MODELS
ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE GREATLY. THE ECMWF DECIDES TO PUSH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA AND
DRIVE A TROUGH DEEP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER THE NEW GFS
18Z RUN DOES COME BACK MORE IN LINE WITH THAT OF THE ECMWF. A
BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BEFORE BUT IT APPEARS
NOW THAT THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BE ABLE TO CHOKE BACK THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH
WOULD BE A GOOD SET UP FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...MID RANGE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY LONG TERM
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE NEXT
180 HOURS.

WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ215.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF JAN 12