Storm Warning 223, NWS Anchorage, AK

099 
FZAK51 PAFC 310147 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 965 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF DILLINGHAM WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON MON. A 980 MB PACIFIC LOW 
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB AS IT MOVES TO 50 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK 
MON NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 
BRISTOL BAY ON TUE.  

$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
445 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

115 
FZAK51 PAFC 311245
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 215 NM S OF SITKINAK AT 959 MB MON
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 972 MB AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO S 25 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SEAS 18 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT EXCEPT 18 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1150 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG MATURE LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. A WARM
OCCLUSION IS PUSHING WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST WHILE
THE REST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS GONE ALOFT AND LOST ITS STRUCTURE.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST AND EXHIBITS A CONVECTIVE AND WAVELIKE CHARACTER. THIS IS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM A
GEOSTROPHIC WIND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM (WHICH FAVORS STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM) TO AN AGEOSTROPHIC
WIND (WHICH FAVORS STRONGER WINDS OVER WEST TURNAGAIN ARM AND
ANCHORAGE) AS THE LOW MAKES MORE PROGRESS NORTH AND WEST CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS
TRANSITION...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TREND BACK UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC. IT WILL BE THE THIRD IN A RAPID SERIES OF VERY STRONG STORMS
TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE ALL GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION. PREFER THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE GEMGLB SOLUTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TUE.
WITH SUCH LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WILL USE A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH
FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
THE LOW DID REALLY STALL OUT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS LIKELY WON'T
BE AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO STILL OBSERVE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WEST ANCHORAGE WON'T SEE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES MOVE IN UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WINDS
NEAR TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP IS FALLING MAINLY AS
RAIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT DO EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...POSSIBLY DOWN
NEAR SEA LEVEL TOWARD MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS
THE THIRD IN A STRING OF STRONG STORMS ARRIVES OVER THE GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT ONE. THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNINGS EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS DIE DOWN.
PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX
OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. DON'T EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE LONG
LASTING IN ANY ONE LOCATION...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ICE
ACCUMULATION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BRIEFLY ON MONDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TAKE A NEARLY IDENTICAL TRACK TO
THE CURRENT ONE...MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER...BUT OTHERWISE THE OBSERVED WEATHER OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE
UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC PUSHES A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PASS UNDERNEATH THE NEXT LOW WHICH TRACKS TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
AND STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SERIES OF VERY STRONG LOWS TRACKING TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END WITH THE ONE MOVING THROUGH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL SET UP
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WEAKER LOWS TRACKING
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA/BRISTOL BAY. THUS...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OUT WEST WITH
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 132 138 150 155.
         GALE WARNING...125 130 140 160 165 170 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

AKZ101-310100-

...HIGH WINDS STILL EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

AFTER A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF ANCHORAGE HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LULL IN
WINDS IS BEING CAUSED BY A SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STORM
CENTER SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. AS THIS LOW MAKES PROGRESS INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. THE SLOWER STORM TRACK ALSO MEANS THE WINDS WON'T BE
QUITE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND TURNAGAIN
ARM...WITH WEAKER WINDS AS YOU HEAD ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TO
WEST ANCHORAGE.

BOTTOM LINE...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE.