Small Craft Advisory 951, NWS Anchorage, AK

930 
FZAK52 PAFC 311235 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 160

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AT 987 MB MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 967 MB PACIFIC LOW
PEAKS AT 959 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH TO 215 NM S OF SITKINAK ISLAND MON
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MON NIGHT...THEN EXPANDS EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOWS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S TO W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. DECREASING TO 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...BERING SIDE...S TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E TO N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

679 
FZAK52 PAFC 311927 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

UPDATED ZONES 171 172 180 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AT 987 MB MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 967 MB PACIFIC LOW
PEAKS AT 959 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH TO 215 NM S OF SITKINAK ISLAND MON
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MON NIGHT...THEN EXPANDS EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOWS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S TO W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. DECREASING TO 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...BERING SIDE...S TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E TO N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1150 AM AKST SUN DEC 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE AND STRONG MATURE LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. A WARM
OCCLUSION IS PUSHING WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST WHILE
THE REST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS GONE ALOFT AND LOST ITS STRUCTURE.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST AND EXHIBITS A CONVECTIVE AND WAVELIKE CHARACTER. THIS IS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM A
GEOSTROPHIC WIND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM (WHICH FAVORS STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM) TO AN AGEOSTROPHIC
WIND (WHICH FAVORS STRONGER WINDS OVER WEST TURNAGAIN ARM AND
ANCHORAGE) AS THE LOW MAKES MORE PROGRESS NORTH AND WEST CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS
TRANSITION...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TREND BACK UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC. IT WILL BE THE THIRD IN A RAPID SERIES OF VERY STRONG STORMS
TO AFFECT THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE ALL GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION. PREFER THE ECMWF
WHICH SHOWS VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE GEMGLB SOLUTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TUE.
WITH SUCH LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WILL USE A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH
FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
THE LOW DID REALLY STALL OUT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS LIKELY WON'T
BE AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO STILL OBSERVE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WEST ANCHORAGE WON'T SEE
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES MOVE IN UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WINDS
NEAR TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP IS FALLING MAINLY AS
RAIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT DO EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...POSSIBLY DOWN
NEAR SEA LEVEL TOWARD MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS
THE THIRD IN A STRING OF STRONG STORMS ARRIVES OVER THE GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT ONE. THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE CURRENT WARNINGS EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS DIE DOWN.
PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX
OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. DON'T EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BE LONG
LASTING IN ANY ONE LOCATION...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ICE
ACCUMULATION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BRIEFLY ON MONDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TAKE A NEARLY IDENTICAL TRACK TO
THE CURRENT ONE...MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER...BUT OTHERWISE THE OBSERVED WEATHER OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE
UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC PUSHES A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PASS UNDERNEATH THE NEXT LOW WHICH TRACKS TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
AND STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SERIES OF VERY STRONG LOWS TRACKING TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END WITH THE ONE MOVING THROUGH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL SET UP
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WEAKER LOWS TRACKING
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA/BRISTOL BAY. THUS...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OUT WEST WITH
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 132 138 150 155.
         GALE WARNING...125 130 140 160 165 170 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12