Small Craft Advisory 952, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2012, 10:27 AM AKST (19:27 UTC)

Expired

Dec 31, 2012, 6:00 PM AKST

In force

8 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

679 
FZAK52 PAFC 311927 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

UPDATED ZONES 171 172 180 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AT 987 MB MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 967 MB PACIFIC LOW
PEAKS AT 959 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH TO 215 NM S OF SITKINAK ISLAND MON
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MON NIGHT...THEN EXPANDS EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOWS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S TO W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. DECREASING TO 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...BERING SIDE...S TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S
WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E TO N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
1027 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 31, 5:02 AM AKST, 5 hours 25 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS WITH THE SPEED OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW TAKING A VERY
SIMILAR PATH AS ITS PREDECESSORS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BRISTOL
BAY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TUESDAY MORNING. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS PREFERRED. MODELS ARE
ALSO STRUGGLING WITH DEPICTING SEVERAL SMALL CLOSED LOWS FORMING
ALONG A WEATHER FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME...HPC GUIDANCE WAS PREFERRED AS IT GENERALIZES THE MANY SURFACE
LOWS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER IN THE BERING SEA. PREDICTING
THE TRACKS AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES BEYOND A FEW DAYS
OUT IS ALMOST ALWAYS FUTILE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE MAIN FEATURE TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE
AKPEN. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING TO BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE.

MEANWHILE...OUT IN THE BERING SEA THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW THAT
BROUGHT HIGH WIND CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF ANCHORAGE IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BETWEEN NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. THE OTHER SYSTEM TO NOTE IS A
WELL-DEFINED FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOWS ARE MODELED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT GIVEN
ITS WELL-DEFINED DEPICTION. THE EASTERNMOST LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
BY MIDWEEK AND PUSH A FRONT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GULF TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SOMETIME THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH A FIERCE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL POSSIBLY BRING A PERIOD OF
SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION INTO ANCHORAGE TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS HARD TO
SAY WHETHER IT MIGHT BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN OR SOME
COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THE BIGGER STORY HOWEVER WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
LIKE WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AS IT PERTAINS TO WINDS BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
EACH MODEL RUN AS WELL AS REAL-TIME TRENDS AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE COOK
INLET REGION NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

STRONG LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE AT SOME
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE KUSKOWKIM DELTA TONIGHT GIVEN
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN AND
ALASKA RANGES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SPILLOVER RAIN ONTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES AT TIMES AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

WRAPAROUND SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW WILL BLANKET PARTS
OF THE AKPEN AND PRIBILOFS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A
WELL-DEFINED WEATHER FRONT BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SHARPNESS OF THE FRONT AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SMALL BUT CLOSED LOWS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME
AND BRING A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...129 140 141 155 160 170 172 175 176
         STORMS...120 125 130 132 138 150
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.