Small Craft Advisory 942, NWS Anchorage, AK

835 
FZAK51 PAFC 280024
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 85 NM SE OF KODIAK DISSIPATES TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS LOWER COOK INLET. A 975 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH TO
340 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT LATE FRI MORNING...STRENGTHENS TO 968 MB
OVER BRISTOL BAY FRI NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND SAT MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-281500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 30 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 40 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-281500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-281500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 35 KT S OF NAKED ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-281500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-281500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 10
FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-281500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT TOWARD MORNING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-281500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-281500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-281500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS IS CREATING GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND HAS BROKEN UP INTO A COMPLEX
LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS STALLED OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IS BRINGING STEADY MODERATE PRECIP TO
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SEA LEVEL...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEADY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS GIVEN WAY
TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE REGION NOW COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COMPLEX LOW SPREADING INTO BRISTOL BAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COLD AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA...GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. OUT
WEST...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STORM-FORCE FRONT
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE CURRENT COMPLEX LOW NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BREAK UP TODAY. THE FIRST
MAJOR DISCREPANCY DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT WESTERN BERING LOW SLIDES EASTWARD
AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL BERING. THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS TRYING TO RAPIDLY AMPLIFY A WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN CIRCULATION...AND SPINNING
UP A DEEP 960 MB SURFACE LOW AROUND BRISTOL BAY THAT THEN ROTATES
NORTHWEST TOWARD NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM MODEL...ALBEIT WITH SOME
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES. THE PROBLEM IS...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
SHOWED A MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE THAT DID NOT PHASE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
AND RESULTED IN A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH THE 06Z NAM
AND 06Z GFS MODELS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE EC/GEM
SOLUTION...WHICH IS LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJOR LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN...THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON GAP WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...AND COULD
LEAD TO THE FIRST CHINOOK WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON IN ANCHORAGE. STAY
TUNED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLASSIC UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING TURNAGAIN PASS...WILL SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE MULTIPLE FEET THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS
WEEK. GAP WINDS...PRIMARILY THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVERALL LOW CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY BUT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR INLAND AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A FAIRLY WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SWING WINDS AROUND TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. AM EXPECTING A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS
EASTERN BERING LOW MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS...WHICH WILL MEAN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIMING INDIVIDUAL LOWS THAT ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. EACH LOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SMALL
AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS...AND WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS THIS
TYPE OF OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS QUICK DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
DISSIPATION OF INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS. IN GENERAL...COLDER AIR WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING. FURTHER EAST...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE FIRST 7 DAYS OF THE
FORECAST...EVEN WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT POINT
IT APPEARS LIKELY THE STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
REGIME THAT IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
MAINLAND. OUT WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE BERING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT-LIVED LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 176
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 172 175 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
700 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

AKZ101-121-125-281500-

...BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN AND AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA...

THE CHUGACH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS ISSUED
AN AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH MOUNTAINS IN
AND AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA.

DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.
NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
HIGH WIND. PEOPLE WITHOUT EXPERT AVALANCHE SKILLS ARE URGED TO STAY
OUT OF THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THIS AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM AKST 12-28-2012.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE SKI AREAS...HIGHWAYS...OR RAILROADS
WHERE AVALANCHE REDUCTION WORK IS EXECUTED.

FOR THE FULL ADVISORY VISIT WWW.CNFAIC.ORG OR CALL 907-754-2369.