Small Craft Advisory 941, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
FZAK51 PAFC 271753 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
850 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

UPDATED ZONES 138 AND 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB NEAR
KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. 
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-280300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-280300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-280300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-280300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 13 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
850 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
850 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN.  
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN EMBEDDED 960 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON THE MAP TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION TODAY...AND WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. TOWARDS THE
GULF...SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING INLAND AS THERE ARE DEEP AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE
DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH RANGES...AS
WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL MODELS
DEPICT THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
NORTH UP COOK INLET THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER
BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE LOW
STRENGTHENING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW WILL
BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING AND STALL NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. A NEW
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AKPEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
WITH THE OTHER SYSTEMS...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL FASTER AND
MUCH DEEPER...BUT THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS ARE ON BOARD
WITH A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW AND THUS WE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THOSE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STORM FORCE GUSTS MOVES NORTH
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING...THEN STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS
WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UNABLE TO PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
INLAND UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE OCCURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT TO SEE RAIN AND SNOW IN WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT
TIMES AND THUS KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO
THE LAST STORM. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF ANCHORAGE...AND POSSIBLY INCLUDING PARTS OF THE EAGLE RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING FROM THE TEENS
TODAY TO NEAR 30 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN TOWN.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY HELP
CHANGE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET FROM KING SALMON NORTHWEST TO BETHEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS AS WELL.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AKPEN...

LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO THE AKPEN BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE GULF. TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR REMAINS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING AS ALL
SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES TOO WARM TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS THERE.
AS THIS SYSTEMS RETREATS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...A NEW SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH MAINLY RAIN...BUT MAY MIX WITH
SOME SNOW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A FAIRLY STABLE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STEERING SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTH INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155 161
MARINE...GALES...125 132 138 140 141 155 160 165 171 172 179 180 185
         STORMS...120 130 170 175 176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 12