Gale Warning 827, NWS Anchorage, AK

952 
FZAK62 PAFC 271233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 155W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
BY THU AFTERNOON. A 965 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 50N 175E WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO 51N 174W AT SAME STRENGTH BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A 970 MB LOW WILL
FORM NEAR 53N 161W AND STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB NEAR 58N 163W LATE FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 56N.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 175W.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 168W
IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

862 
FZAK62 PAFC 280008
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 MB LOW NEAR 49N 178E MOVES NEAR 50N 170W SAT AFTERNOON WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING TO 975 MB. A 979 MB LOW NEAR 58N 165W MOVES NEAR 59N
178W FRI AFTERNOON AT 975 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 975 MB LOW NEAR
50N 161W LATE FRI MORNING MOVES TO 58N 160W WHILE STRENGTHENING TO
968 MB FRI NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND. A 975 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 55N
175W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.  

$$

165 
FZAK62 PAFC 281216
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 53N 160W AT 965 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN 970 MB NEAR 60N 164W SAT MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO 975 MB
NEAR 62N 170W LATE SAT NIGHT. A 962 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 49N 180 WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 980 MB NEAR 54N 174W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 176E. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
W OF 176W. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N
IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 175W. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W. 
.SAT...W OF 175W...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. E OF 175W...E WIND 15
KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 28 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57 N. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 PM AKST WED DEC 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN EMBEDDED 960 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON THE MAP TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION TODAY...AND WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. TOWARDS THE
GULF...SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING INLAND AS THERE ARE DEEP AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE
DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE KENAI AND CHUGACH RANGES...AS
WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL MODELS
DEPICT THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
NORTH UP COOK INLET THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER
BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE LOW
STRENGTHENING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW WILL
BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING AND STALL NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. A NEW
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AKPEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
WITH THE OTHER SYSTEMS...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL FASTER AND
MUCH DEEPER...BUT THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS ARE ON BOARD
WITH A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW AND THUS WE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THOSE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STORM FORCE GUSTS MOVES NORTH
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING...THEN STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS
WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UNABLE TO PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
INLAND UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE OCCURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT TO SEE RAIN AND SNOW IN WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT
TIMES AND THUS KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO
THE LAST STORM. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF ANCHORAGE...AND POSSIBLY INCLUDING PARTS OF THE EAGLE RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING FROM THE TEENS
TODAY TO NEAR 30 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN TOWN.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY HELP
CHANGE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET FROM KING SALMON NORTHWEST TO BETHEL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AS
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
IMPACT AVIATION CONCERNS AS WELL.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/AKPEN...

LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO THE AKPEN BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE GULF. TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR REMAINS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING AS ALL
SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES TOO WARM TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS THERE.
AS THIS SYSTEMS RETREATS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...A NEW SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH MAINLY RAIN...BUT MAY MIX WITH
SOME SNOW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A FAIRLY STABLE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STEERING SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTH INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155 161
MARINE...GALES...125 132 138 140 141 155 160 165 171 172 179 180 185
         STORMS...120 130 170 175 176
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC DEC 12