Small Craft Advisory 888, NWS Anchorage, AK

810 
FZAK51 PAFC 072357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SAT EVENING. A 966 MB LOW 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
COLD BAY LATE SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR TOGIAK SUN AFTERNOON AT 
982 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY SAT MORNING.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.  
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS WEST. 
.SAT...E TO NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...SEAS 18 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E
WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 16 FT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPEED OF
THE UPCOMING NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT(S). THE 12Z
ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE 12Z GFS FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH A LOBE
CENTERED NEAR BRISTOL BAY...ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...AND A THIRD NEAR GALENA. THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVING NORTH...THIS LOW WILL BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE EAST...AND AFTER TONIGHT AND WILL NO LONGER
BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE GALENA LOW ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP TONIGHT AND BE
WELL DEVELOPED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW BELOW 970
MB...WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE MID 950'S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) FRIDAY
EVENING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AREA AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND BEFORE
THE WARM AIR PUSHES IN WITH THE FRONT. WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SWITCHING TO RAIN.

AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY THE
PRIBILOFS LOOK TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE GUN ON SATURDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH. AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE ZONE.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING
AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY...SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
INLAND WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF ALASKA BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE BERING
SEA. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
SOUTHERN AS SYSTEMS SPIN OFF THE BERING LOW AND RACE EASTWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 161 181 185 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172.
         GALE WARNING 127 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12