Small Craft Advisory 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAFC 071256
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRI EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT. A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTH OF COLD BAY AT 968 MB SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT
OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT...BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON S OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPEED OF
THE UPCOMING NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT(S). THE 12Z
ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE 12Z GFS FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH A LOBE
CENTERED NEAR BRISTOL BAY...ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...AND A THIRD NEAR GALENA. THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVING NORTH...THIS LOW WILL BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE EAST...AND AFTER TONIGHT AND WILL NO LONGER
BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE GALENA LOW ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP TONIGHT AND BE
WELL DEVELOPED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW BELOW 970
MB...WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE MID 950'S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) FRIDAY
EVENING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AKPEN IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AREA AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND BEFORE
THE WARM AIR PUSHES IN WITH THE FRONT. WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION SWITCHING TO RAIN.

AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY THE
PRIBILOFS LOOK TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE GUN ON SATURDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH. AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE ZONE.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING
AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY...SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
INLAND WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF ALASKA BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE BERING
SEA. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
SOUTHERN AS SYSTEMS SPIN OFF THE BERING LOW AND RACE EASTWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 161 181 185 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172.
         GALE WARNING 127 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 6 2012

AKZ101-111-121-125-080200-

...MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
WEEKEND...

THE CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
ALASKA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE JET STREAM PATTERN
WHICH WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE FIRST STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTH.
THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE MULTIPLE PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALONG
THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 35 TO 50 MPH ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND
SUSITNA VALLEYS...PERIODS OF SNOWFALL WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR WEST OF THE KNIK ARM.

NEAR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...FROM WHITTIER TO GIRDWOOD...
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED A FOOT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2 FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IN THE COMING DAYS
FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION AT HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

AHSENMACHER