Blizzard Watch 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

953 
WWAK41 PAFC 072057
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1157 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

AKZ131-081000-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-121208T1900Z/
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T2100Z-121209T0900Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1157 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST SATURDAY...

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS 
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* WIND...NORTH 30 TO 45 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING. 

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
  SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH BY NOON SATURDAY
  AND THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATE IN THE EVENING SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE THROUGH 
  FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ125-081000-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T1600Z-121209T0900Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1157 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...8 TO 14 INCHES...HEAVIEST TOWARD PORTAGE.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...EAST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME 
  HEAVIER SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY 
  MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

029 
WWAK41 PAFC 072101 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

AKZ131-081015-
/X.COR.PAFC.WC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-121208T1900Z/
/X.COR.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T2100Z-121209T0900Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1200 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR
THOMPSON PASS...

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS 
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* WIND...NORTH 30 TO 45 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING. 

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
  SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH BY NOON SATURDAY
  AND THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATE IN THE EVENING SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE THROUGH 
  FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ125-081015-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T1600Z-121209T0900Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1200 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...8 TO 14 INCHES...HEAVIEST TOWARD PORTAGE.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...EAST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME 
  HEAVIER SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY 
  MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

367 
WWAK41 PAFC 080059
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

AKZ131-081515-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T2100Z-121209T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0056.121209T0100Z-121209T1600Z/
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-121208T1900Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
359 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM AKST
SUNDAY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM AKST
SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...8 TO 14 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING TO
  30 TO 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 BELOW ZERO THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...REGARDING THE BLIZZARD...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH STEADY SNOW
  WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN IMPROVED VISIBILITY. REGARDING THE
  WIND CHILLS...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY
  SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. INCREASED RISK OF
  HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FROM WIND CHILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ125-081515-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0037.121208T1600Z-121209T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0056.121208T1900Z-121209T0900Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
359 PM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...12 TO 20 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
  MORNING AS SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AND WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE. WINDS
  THEN LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEATHER FRONT
  PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

* IMPACTS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOWS ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. UPPER
RIDGING IS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS STRENGTHENS. AT THE
SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND KODIAK
ISLAND...OTHERWISE THE AREA IS FREE OF PRECIPITATION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
THAT CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FIRST COUPLE
PERIODS IS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW QUICKLY BOTH
PRECIPITATION AND WARMER AIR WILL REACH THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS WAS USED FOR
THIS...HOWEVER THIS STILL LEAVES UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSSIBILITY
AND DURATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AK...THE
UNCERTAINTY COMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN GENERAL A NAM SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A PATTERN CHANGE HAS BEGUN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE FELT AROUND THIS AREA UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY QUITE
A BIT AS USUAL. DOWNSLOPING IS A CONCERN FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...AND
WILL LIKELY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPING ENDS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST SNOWFALL IN A FEW WEEKS SO IMPACTS COULD BE LARGER THAN USUAL
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCATIONS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
GULF COASTS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND
ALSO THOMPSON PASS...WE WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FIRST IN THE MID
LEVELS AND THEN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE TO RAIN. ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN AS THE MID LEVELS WARM AND CAUSE SNOW TO MELT BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THERE
IS ALREADY A BLIZZARD WATCH OUT FOR THE SAME AREA LATER ON...WE WILL
MENTION THE WIND CHILLS IN THE FORECAST BUT HOPE TO REDUCE CONFUSION
BY KEEPING HEADLINES SIMPLE WITH JUST THE BLIZZARD WATCH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES THAT
AREA CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 125 131 155 161 181 195
         BLIZZARD WARNING 185 187
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 170 172 413 414
         GALE WARNING 127 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 175 179 185
                      180 351 352 411 412
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 126 127 140 160 165 179 185 412
                      413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE