Small Craft Advisory 852, NWS Anchorage, AK

824 
FZAK51 PAFC 250011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE SUN. A 1007
MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN EVENING AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING THEN INCREASING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THIS MORNING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE ASHORE THE PANHANDLE. TWO UPPER LOW
CENTERS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ONE OVER THE AKPEN AND ANOTHER
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WHICH WILL LIKELY PHASE AS THE LATTER
PROPAGATES NORTHWARD. CURRENTLY THE AKPEN TROUGH IS FORCING A THIN
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF KING SALMON TO KODIAK
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE OVER THE MAINLAND...COLD GAP WINDS CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LOSE CONSISTENCY PAST THE
WEEKEND AS THE BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL FEATURES AS A WEAK LOW MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AN OCCLUSION WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
BERING...EVENTUALLY SPAWNING A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR THE AKPEN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH STALLS OUT OVERHEAD. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER TROUGH
OVER THE AKPEN WILL SPREAD SNOW FROM KODIAK ISLAND...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS HOMER AS A WEAKENING LOW/COLD FRONT SWING OVERHEAD. LOWER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA TODAY STOPPING RIGHT AT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. COLD DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING ABOVE THE AKPEN WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM KING
SALMON THROUGH DILLINGHAM TODAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR NORTHWARD
AS ILIAMNA OTHERWISE JUST AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A FRONT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE WESTERN CHAIN
THIS MORNING...CONTINUING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CHAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING AND A
NEW SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG IT BRINGING RAIN...THEN SNOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. RIDGING WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE BERING SEA IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM AND THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY TROUGHING OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MEANING A CONTINUATION OF COLD DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND PERIODIC FRONT OVER THE
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 12